We are on the Verge of Economic Catastrophe

[Bronzeage]

One way to look at the AI bubble is to imagine it's 1925 and General Motors and Ford decide to each build 1 million cars a month. Everybody is excited and buys stock. The road infrastructure for this doesn't exist and neither does the capacity to produce enough gasoline. The utility of a car or truck can't be denied, but investing the money for a product that can't be supported by the economy is economic suicide.

 

[Swammerdami]

ABTC is $1.83 as I write, down from $9.50 in September. Eric Trump is ABTC's Chief Strategy Officer
MSTR is $172 down from $466 in July. MSTR's CEO has dined with Eric Trump at Mar-a-Lago.
Et cetera.
These (and DJT?) are "crypto treasuries". Let Patrick Boyle amuse you with an explanation of these marvelous grifting machines. Boyle is a hedge-fund manager and Professor of Finance.
DJT is $10.74, down from $43 in January. I don't know if we need to be concerned about Messiah's losses -- he usually tries to get his griftng profits up-front.)

Bitcoin itself is under $90k, down from $126k in October.
Ethereum is down 36% since September.

Note that cryptos, and especially their derivatives, have no useful function except to bypass financial regulators, and to enrich criminals and grifters.

 

[hurtinbuckaroo]

Silver has also plummeted. Realizing that the record $51 per ounce was exuberant, the bulls have become bears and are desperately liquidating their silver at the bargain-basement price of $50. Paper Benjamins remain the Refuge of Fear.

The price of silver went above $64 today, thanks to industrial, manipulation of supply, and the trashing of the economy which prompted the Fed to cut rates again.

We were going to sell our sterling flatware back when it was $50, but got distracted by family/holiday stuff. It's now worth an extra $500.

 

[Colonel Sanders]

ABTC is $1.83 as I write, down from $9.50 in September. Eric Trump is ABTC's Chief Strategy Officer
MSTR is $172 down from $466 in July. MSTR's CEO has dined with Eric Trump at Mar-a-Lago.
Et cetera.
These (and DJT?) are "crypto treasuries". Let Patrick Boyle amuse you with an explanation of these marvelous grifting machines. Boyle is a hedge-fund manager and Professor of Finance.
DJT is $10.74, down from $43 in January. I don't know if we need to be concerned about Messiah's losses -- he usually tries to get his griftng profits up-front.)

Bitcoin itself is under $90k, down from $126k in October.
Ethereum is down 36% since September.

Note that cryptos, and especially their derivatives, have no useful function except to bypass financial regulators, and to enrich criminals and grifters.

Nvidia's up 28-31% over the last six months.

Tesla is up 38-56% over the same period.

It depends on what tech stocks you invest in.

Investing in crypto seems not just aggressive, but Thelma and Louise-ish.

 

[Swammerdami]

ABTC is $1.83 as I write, down from $9.50 in September. Eric Trump is ABTC's Chief Strategy Officer
MSTR is $172 down from $466 in July. MSTR's CEO has dined with Eric Trump at Mar-a-Lago.
Et cetera.
These (and DJT?) are "crypto treasuries". Let Patrick Boyle amuse you with an explanation of these marvelous grifting machines. Boyle is a hedge-fund manager and Professor of Finance.
DJT is $10.74, down from $43 in January. I don't know if we need to be concerned about Messiah's losses -- he usually tries to get his griftng profits up-front.)
...
Note that cryptos, and especially their derivatives, have no useful function except to bypass financial regulators, and to enrich criminals and grifters.

Nvidia's up 28-31% over the last six months.

Tesla is up 38-56% over the same period.

It depends on what tech stocks you invest in.

Investing in crypto seems not just aggressive, but Thelma and Louise-ish.

I don't think of ABTC, MSTR (or several others such) as "tech stocks." They are purely financial shenanigans. Some of their investors view them as sort of "perpetual motion machines" which churn out profits forever -- or for as long as cryptocoins continue to soar in value. Watch at least a few minutes of the Patrick Boyle video to see how hilarious these companies are. It's almost a matter of pride with them that they produce no useful goods or services. Some don't even mine bitcoins; they just buy bitcoins as investors feed them cash.

There is one big similarity between bitcoin miners and AI operators: Both operate huge data-centers consuming huge amounts of electricity (and often water also). Texas has very lax regulations so many data-centers are built there, with nearby towns reporting continual noise 24/7 :-- Noise as high as 107 decibels, way above safe levels, causes headaches, vertigo, and psychological problems among the data-centers' neighbors.

At least AI data-centers produce something: sometimes-correct answers to queries. Bitcoin mining data-centers OTOH produce nothing but strings of 0' and 1's intended as a substitute "money", a money which has no purpose but as a play-thing or to bypass regulation and to drive down the relative value of traditional government-endorsed money.

 

[Swammerdami]

Watch at least a few minutes of the Patrick Boyle video to see how hilarious these companies are....

I'm pleased to see that four Infidels clicked the Thumbs-Up button for me.
BUT -- Did you watch at least the first 5 minutes of the Patrick Boyle video? It really is hilarious, imo.
If you're in a hurry start at about 3:15 and just watch for about 90 seconds until the "truth and beauty" punchline.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Trump, following through with Biden's efforts on cannabis, started actually doing something that I'm benefiting from. Just need an official order on reclassification for a real pop.

 

[Swammerdami]

Given the ever-growing bubbles (stock prices, debts) and the poorly designed methods of fighting the erosion of consumer spending power, it is something of a mystery why the prices of stocks and bonds remain so high.

Part of the explanation is share purchases by corporations. In the past we've often seen corporations buy their own stock when it's overvalued rather than when it's cheap! (This sounds stupid, but may sometimes be smart for managers whose compensation is tied to short-term stock price performance.)

In Q1 2025 buybacks by S&P 500 companies reached about $293.5 billion, setting a quarterly record. Recent 12-month totals have been $1.00 trillion, record-setting. Apple alone may have bought $100 billion of its own stock during 2025. Buybacks are just one factor feeding demand for stocks. Passive investments -- entities that buy index funds automatically -- don't help "price discovery"; they just push indexed stocks higher.

Various factors prop up Treasury bond prices. The Treasury has been selling bills to buy long-term bonds before maturity. Foreign central banks usually roll over U.S. debt at whatever rate is offered. U.S. banks are required to buy to retain privileges. And now the FRB itself has resumed QE, though keeping announcements low-key. Because of these factors long bond yield remains below 5% despite 3+% inflation and rising unsustainable debt. An increase in rates would increase mortgage costs and defaults.

Finance has completely changed during our lifetime. From 1968 to 2001 interest on the long bond was almost never less than 5%. Since then it's hardly ever been more than 5%. Governments are desperate to keep that rate below 5%. If they fail, expect panic.

If foreigners lose their appetite for U.S. assets, the bubble will burst.

American banks are sitting on about $500 billions of unrealized losses on bonds, MBS, etc. -- losses that don't appear on financial statements unless they are forced to sell. Commercial real estate is in a severe slump, bank loans will default; uninsured deposits may be in jeopardy.

"Shadow banking" -- hedge funds, private equity -- now exceeds normal regulated banking in total financial size. These "banks" perform functions similar to regular banks but WITHOUT any oversight, regulation, or deposit insurance. They operate with high leverage and high risk. Much of the assets of conventional banks are loans to those shadow banks. In recent months, the Fed has taken various steps to increase liquidity. Unexplained temporary liquidity injections may be caused by gambling failures among shadow banks, but we don't know -- there's no oversight.

Meanwhile some news reports continue to suggest that all is rosy.

 

[Swammerdami]

Speaking of private equity firms, Blackstone acquired Minnesota Power (or rather its parent, ALLETE) two months ago. Blackstone Group is the largest private equity firm in the world, with over $1 trillion in assets under management. This is not your parents' traditional American capitalism anymore. This 15-minute YouTube warned about this acquisition before it was approved. Following -- in a spoiler to reduce distraction -- are some of the comments at that YouTube:

Spoiler

BlackRock is trying to buy Minnesota Power, which provides power to over 150,000 people.
Why? They want to profit off of the soaring electricity demand from AI data centers.
If they win, and if it's profitable, your power company could be next. …
8,553 Comments
@rice_rice_baby
2 months ago
Total commitment to unlimited continuous growth is the directive of a cancer cell
16K
@MutantNinjaDonut
2 months ago
Private equity owns the water system in southern England and it’s an utter disaster for citizens. Don’t allow it.
5K
@AuDHD_Mom
2 months ago
Greed is a cancer that is killing our country.
2.8K
@tropicaltico
2 months ago
What happened to monopoly laws? Seize Black Rock, VanGuard, State Street. Break them up, dismantle them. Sue and charge them...
142
@The_R-n-I_Guy
2 months ago
It's disturbing how these corporations can get away with things that would send me to prison for life
8.5K
@CashisKingtrucking
2 months ago
So basically Black Rock just needs to buy the governor so he can appoint five people that will approve it. That's how America works
4.7K
@RocketBaboon
2 months ago
Companies like Palantir and Blackrock scare me more than just about anything on this planet. They need to be stopped for the sake of humanity.
6.4K
@krofner_com
2 months ago
October 8:
"all five members of the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission (PUC) agreed to approve the $6.2 billion deal on Friday morning"
BlackRock bought it
359
@jmyuh8130
2 months ago
"Yes, the planet got destroyed, but for a beautiful moment in time we created a lot of value for shareholders” - Tom Toro
3.5K
@fraizie6815
2 months ago
BlackRock wants the earth to become an uninhabitable black rock
3.3K
@AMcGrath82
2 months ago
BlackRock is a threat to us all.
2.1K
@Akgoblin47
2 months ago
Blackrock
Vangaurd
State street
These assets managers own everything and are obtaining more by the second. They will own us soon.
108
@RazorbackKen
2 months ago
Private equity needs to be severely regulated and outright banned from all public infrastructure.
867
@RazielApollyon
2 months ago
They need their Oligopolies broken up. It's not just Blackrock.
432
@thecodynowak
2 months ago
Reminder that this is not a left or right thing. Blackrock is buying everything up and does not care about your political allegiances.
19K
@glennhertel1165
1 month ago
How do a few people get this much money and power? I wonder when the last time they paid probate taxes was.
1
@ahunt1054
2 months ago
Private equity companies only raise prices on consumers and cut employees. That is the only page in their playbook.
396
@kchellboy209
2 months ago
Public utilties (power, housing, food) should never be abused for profit for the sake of rich corporations or individuals that don't care about the average person.
645
@OldTimeyDragon
2 months ago
I don't fear foreign powers nearly as much as I fear domestic investment firms.
1K
@MeticulousTechTV
2 months ago
Teddy Roosevelt must be turning in his grave seeing how all of his monopoly busting only took 120 years to fully reverse
704
@mariabarrios9329
2 months ago
They have to stopped black rock,and to barrow money in the property is illegal,or be illegal, they are master criminals,
2
@amandaduerk5866
2 months ago (edited)
Why aren’t any of these people ever satisfied with “enough?” Why do they always want more more more, and growth, growth, growth, which just equates to bigger wealth, bigger wealth, bigger wealth? It’s some sort of mental disease to never be content. Why is world domination always the endgame for these maniacs?
1.4K
@PeasantsRevolt
2 months ago
It would be great if we were allowed to enjoy our lives, but instead, we only exist to make people we've never met rich.
890
@00atmsk
2 months ago
Power plants shouldn't be profit seeking. The state should buy out the plant and make it public.
478
@kenshin130
2 months ago
It's sickening to see small group of conniving evil individuals collude to steal, enslave and control 90% of the population for profit and own gains, while so-called governments enable them as they too seek to benefit from it. Public utilities should NEVER belong to private corporations and governments that support that should be overthrown. Tax money should not be depicted and used at the discretion of these individuals. Enough is enough.
10
@firevid6003
2 months ago
Remember the CEO of Nestlé once said water wasn't a human right.
1.3K
@maman89
2 months ago
BlackRock would monetize oxygen if they could. And white house would let them.
12K
@Thatonem8
2 months ago
MN should never approve this sale or any like it
20
@deudaux
2 months ago
This is "democratic" in the same sense as "voting to abolish democracy".
1
@24CiViC
2 months ago
All single family homes and all utilities should be off limits to corporations. They don’t care about running a utility or providing a home for someone - it’s all about GREED.
302
@spacesharkwriter6554
2 months ago
So this is how cyberpunk happens
819
@aidanteall7186
2 months ago
Blackrock functions literally like a cancer metastasizing within the economy, spreading its influence out as far as possible, and sucking up as much money as they can, all without providing any service to anyone but their shareholders. The perfect exploitation of, and example against, unmitigated neoliberalist capitalism.
328
@LouiseSavage-g2f
2 months ago
They want everything from us, while they make money galore
1
@briantracer979
2 months ago
As we fight amongst ourselves, they're stealing the rug from under us.
37
@dave24-73
2 months ago
It’s clear they want the power for the data centres and not for the public, in short watch them prices go up.
160
@danielcarter491
1 month ago
JUST BREAK UP ALL THESE DANG MONOPOLIES OR PUT ALL THESE POLITICIANS IN JAIL!!
2
@sparkytv1078
2 months ago
Break up Black Rock and ban Private Equity.
318
@jonbrown-ng2hx
2 months ago
This is evil and should be illegal
203
@john38825
2 months ago
Blackrock is more influential than countries. These guys are playing a game at a worldwide scale that most people can't even understand mostly because they hide.
143
@crxdgrey
2 months ago
Amazing video… how freaking sad reality
1
@chrisnotpratt1903
2 months ago
People should take notes on Nepal, France, and Chicago. The only way corporations are going to stop is with force from the public, because it's clear that our administration wants to run this country like a business.
520
@Guglimesh
2 months ago
Predators.
23
@hlidskialf8358
2 months ago
Public services that get privatized is a spiral of no return. Dystopia isn't far off once companies like this have their talons dug into public services.
91
@gracey3282
2 months ago
They get to default on their 700 million dollar loan and walk away...............
6
@thomaskortvelyessy
2 months ago
Milton Freedman and the neoliberal dream of everything "privatized" = robbed by large capital companies for profit is going on unhinged, ....
37
@UrNotThatGuyPal
2 months ago
This is why people glorify Luigi mangioni. Corporations are given too much freedom to do this shit
4.6K
@1manorgy
2 months ago
"unlock this" so they can "grow" is such a detached way of looking at the suffering they seek to inflict on the general populace
823
@doubledude4381
2 months ago
Incoming: United States of Blackrock.
549
@ericc6820
2 months ago
in economics we call things like water “inelastic”. Meaning they don’t follow normal supply and demand curves. Because demand for water is infinite. So you can charge as much as you want. Usually inelastic goods are controlled or regulated heavily by the goverment so that this very thing doesn’t happen. but due to our political system, being captured by corporate interest and powerful lobbies, these big companies, lobby, Congress, and pay them good money to look the other way. So what’s happening is that corporations and private companies are taking over inelastic goods and absolutely ridiculous prices. It’s going to kill people.
98
@beny7160
1 month ago
Private equity needs to be blocked from ownership of any type of public supply services.
5
@VanillaSkittle
2 months ago
this already happened in my area and our electric bills are INSANE. they say it's "only" a 20% increase, meanwhile 200% and 300% increases is what people are actually seeing.
324
@briank.2650
2 months ago
The problem is corporations like BlackRock are running out of places to stuff their money. It has become a runaway train. THEY HAVE TOO MUCH MONEY
859
@KailuaChick
2 months ago
My first thought: Wait, how can they get any more worse? their power is unchecked and it’s terrifying.
516
@rickmaninvasion
2 months ago
Black rock did buy the power company. Our government is corrupt.
5
@azmidlyf
2 months ago
"Control of the masses by the few"...
20
@solsonjp
2 months ago
It’s crazy how ~200 are single handily controlling our country through bribing government, and monopolizing our essential resources. And none of these people care about anyone below them. We are so screwed.
88
@SixFeetofVenison
2 months ago
Someone said USA is not a country. It's a Company
224
@reedolson8371
2 months ago
MN PUC just approved the acquisition
2
@lazypuddycat
2 months ago
If they are smart, keep public utilities public. Look at Texas and what happened to them during the cold snap.
59
@chrisculhane3777
2 months ago
We need to tear down corporate America. Its souless greed for people already ridiculously wealthy at the expense of everyone else
329
@turkizno
2 months ago (edited)
Blackrock and Blackstone, and other companies taking up things like housing as "assets" really need to be looked into. Too bad Lina Khan is no longer at FTC.
PS: They are a global problem btw. They are looking to buy up infrastructure in UK and are lobbying the UK government for years now.
502
@marius-op7nd
2 months ago
Private equity should be outlawed.
It's plan and simple.
Fueling greed and power to a few in detriment of many.
4
@sethcocquit3044
2 months ago
NO ONE is safe in any corner of the country
24
@BKzee3
2 months ago
Privatize the profits. Socialize the cost.
68
@overtheairbroadcast
2 months ago
The monopolization of real assets and the errosion of the middle-class. Your kids will rent a house or apartment, pay for utilities like electricity, natural gas, and water, pay for food and groceries, pay a hospital for medical procedures, buy insurance for their car and place they rent, and their internet access all to two or three corporations. Your kids most likely work will work for these same corporations for low wages and threadbare benefits because no unions are allowed.

Blackrock already owns 274,000 homes in America (go ahead, check it) and that's just a start. By the way, some of those homes sit empty... housing crisis, anyone?
306
@nate4146
1 month ago
What’s concerning about this is if companies can be bought who’s to say they couldn’t be paid to destabilize our infrastructure seeing as they own it?
3
@thomaskortvelyessy
2 months ago
It sounds more like robber barons banding together to rob and sack a community of people ...
64
@reneefletcher1143
2 months ago
Larry Fink of BR is the one that took over Klaus Schwabs head position at WEF. Nothing surprises me anymore.
55
@mapgeek6
2 months ago
Oligarchy and fascism are absolutely destroying our ability to live as anything other than peasants.
760
@kcarpen3
1 month ago
Insane how much they will own by end of 2026. We’re truly at the first step of dystopia.
2
@rachelrivera91
2 months ago (edited)
I know people who live in Duluth personally. They mentioned this to us. Whenever a private equity takes over anything, it turns to shit. All for profits and to make their stockholders and investors happy. I'm so glad the residents including our friends are fighting back and are vocal to get Black Rock out of their community. Thank you for this feature. You guys More Perfect Union are serving our communities with relevant and truthful information for the people.. You guys rock!! Bring back anti trusts.
55
@bobhill-f4f
2 months ago
It's TREASON at every level!
30
@geoffrey1955
2 months ago
The fact that the big three can pretend to be different companies whilst owning each other and sharing the same board of directors. If you combine Blackrock, Vanguard and Statestreet you basically have CHOAM: a company that has total voting control over basically the entire fortune 1000.

 

[SLD]

Here is LPL’s outlook for the upcoming year.

https://www.lpl.com/content/dam/edam/series/outlook/outlook-2026-report.pdf

Long story short, expect more of the same in 2026. A slow first quarter (~1%) rebounding in the second half, inflation slowly coming down to 2.5%, tight labor markets but with little change, and the bull market will continue throughout the next year. But I think that’s the problem with most such analyses. You can only expect more of the same if nothing happens. Trump though is a hyper active child constantly switching his positions depending on how the markets react. I still say that an invasion of Venezuela could be a disaster for our economy as the world may take actions to punish us. But Trump may actually balk at that.

 

[Elixir]

Here is LPL’s outlook for the upcoming year.

https://www.lpl.com/content/dam/edam/series/outlook/outlook-2026-report.pdf

Long story short, expect more of the same in 2026. A slow first quarter (~1%) rebounding in the second half, inflation slowly coming down to 2.5%, tight labor markets but with little change, and the bull market will continue throughout the next year. But I think that’s the problem with most such analyses. You can only expect more of the same if nothing happens. Trump though is a hyper active child constantly switching his positions depending on how the markets react. I still say that an invasion of Venezuela could be a disaster for our economy as the world may take actions to punish us. But Trump may actually balk at that.

A safe nothing. Which is all anyone will venture as long as an impetuous toddler exerts undue influence on markets while playing with his outsized toys.

 

[Swammerdami]

Silver.
I once had a significant holding in the SIVR ETF but sold it (as part of my general program of moving assets from my California account to my kids here). Boy, was that a mistake!

Silver sold for $30/oz as recently as June and briefly sold below $50 in late November. The price is WELL above $50 now. Can you spell "Short Squeeze"?

I Google "silver short squeeze" and get articles like this:

Silver surges past $50 as London short squeeze echoes 1980 Hunt brothers saga​

... from October. "Surges past $50" is something of an understatement now. $66 per ounce is the most recent price I've seen; yes that's Sixty-six with two Ss and two Xs. I'm not sure if that's the latest price: I'm getting Error 503 from Kitco.

IIUC this week's end is an expiry date for many CME options. Speculators have been buying call options at outrageous strike prices. Ordinary commercial banks, led by JPMorganChase, have been selling these calls, naked. Open interest at the $70 strike price was 40,000 contracts recently or 200 million ounces. That's only a $200 million pay-out if the price gets to $71, but what if the squeezing bulls demand PHYSICAL silver?

Great fun.