We are on the Verge of Economic Catastrophe

[Bronzeage]

One way to look at the AI bubble is to imagine it's 1925 and General Motors and Ford decide to each build 1 million cars a month. Everybody is excited and buys stock. The road infrastructure for this doesn't exist and neither does the capacity to produce enough gasoline. The utility of a car or truck can't be denied, but investing the money for a product that can't be supported by the economy is economic suicide.

 

[Swammerdami]

ABTC is $1.83 as I write, down from $9.50 in September. Eric Trump is ABTC's Chief Strategy Officer
MSTR is $172 down from $466 in July. MSTR's CEO has dined with Eric Trump at Mar-a-Lago.
Et cetera.
These (and DJT?) are "crypto treasuries". Let Patrick Boyle amuse you with an explanation of these marvelous grifting machines. Boyle is a hedge-fund manager and Professor of Finance.
DJT is $10.74, down from $43 in January. I don't know if we need to be concerned about Messiah's losses -- he usually tries to get his griftng profits up-front.)

Bitcoin itself is under $90k, down from $126k in October.
Ethereum is down 36% since September.

Note that cryptos, and especially their derivatives, have no useful function except to bypass financial regulators, and to enrich criminals and grifters.

 

[hurtinbuckaroo]

Silver has also plummeted. Realizing that the record $51 per ounce was exuberant, the bulls have become bears and are desperately liquidating their silver at the bargain-basement price of $50. Paper Benjamins remain the Refuge of Fear.

The price of silver went above $64 today, thanks to industrial, manipulation of supply, and the trashing of the economy which prompted the Fed to cut rates again.

We were going to sell our sterling flatware back when it was $50, but got distracted by family/holiday stuff. It's now worth an extra $500.

 

[Colonel Sanders]

ABTC is $1.83 as I write, down from $9.50 in September. Eric Trump is ABTC's Chief Strategy Officer
MSTR is $172 down from $466 in July. MSTR's CEO has dined with Eric Trump at Mar-a-Lago.
Et cetera.
These (and DJT?) are "crypto treasuries". Let Patrick Boyle amuse you with an explanation of these marvelous grifting machines. Boyle is a hedge-fund manager and Professor of Finance.
DJT is $10.74, down from $43 in January. I don't know if we need to be concerned about Messiah's losses -- he usually tries to get his griftng profits up-front.)

Bitcoin itself is under $90k, down from $126k in October.
Ethereum is down 36% since September.

Note that cryptos, and especially their derivatives, have no useful function except to bypass financial regulators, and to enrich criminals and grifters.

Nvidia's up 28-31% over the last six months.

Tesla is up 38-56% over the same period.

It depends on what tech stocks you invest in.

Investing in crypto seems not just aggressive, but Thelma and Louise-ish.

 

[Swammerdami]

ABTC is $1.83 as I write, down from $9.50 in September. Eric Trump is ABTC's Chief Strategy Officer
MSTR is $172 down from $466 in July. MSTR's CEO has dined with Eric Trump at Mar-a-Lago.
Et cetera.
These (and DJT?) are "crypto treasuries". Let Patrick Boyle amuse you with an explanation of these marvelous grifting machines. Boyle is a hedge-fund manager and Professor of Finance.
DJT is $10.74, down from $43 in January. I don't know if we need to be concerned about Messiah's losses -- he usually tries to get his griftng profits up-front.)
...
Note that cryptos, and especially their derivatives, have no useful function except to bypass financial regulators, and to enrich criminals and grifters.

Nvidia's up 28-31% over the last six months.

Tesla is up 38-56% over the same period.

It depends on what tech stocks you invest in.

Investing in crypto seems not just aggressive, but Thelma and Louise-ish.

I don't think of ABTC, MSTR (or several others such) as "tech stocks." They are purely financial shenanigans. Some of their investors view them as sort of "perpetual motion machines" which churn out profits forever -- or for as long as cryptocoins continue to soar in value. Watch at least a few minutes of the Patrick Boyle video to see how hilarious these companies are. It's almost a matter of pride with them that they produce no useful goods or services. Some don't even mine bitcoins; they just buy bitcoins as investors feed them cash.

There is one big similarity between bitcoin miners and AI operators: Both operate huge data-centers consuming huge amounts of electricity (and often water also). Texas has very lax regulations so many data-centers are built there, with nearby towns reporting continual noise 24/7 :-- Noise as high as 107 decibels, way above safe levels, causes headaches, vertigo, and psychological problems among the data-centers' neighbors.

At least AI data-centers produce something: sometimes-correct answers to queries. Bitcoin mining data-centers OTOH produce nothing but strings of 0' and 1's intended as a substitute "money", a money which has no purpose but as a play-thing or to bypass regulation and to drive down the relative value of traditional government-endorsed money.

 

[Swammerdami]

Watch at least a few minutes of the Patrick Boyle video to see how hilarious these companies are....

I'm pleased to see that four Infidels clicked the Thumbs-Up button for me.
BUT -- Did you watch at least the first 5 minutes of the Patrick Boyle video? It really is hilarious, imo.
If you're in a hurry start at about 3:15 and just watch for about 90 seconds until the "truth and beauty" punchline.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Trump, following through with Biden's efforts on cannabis, started actually doing something that I'm benefiting from. Just need an official order on reclassification for a real pop.

 

[Swammerdami]

Given the ever-growing bubbles (stock prices, debts) and the poorly designed methods of fighting the erosion of consumer spending power, it is something of a mystery why the prices of stocks and bonds remain so high.

Part of the explanation is share purchases by corporations. In the past we've often seen corporations buy their own stock when it's overvalued rather than when it's cheap! (This sounds stupid, but may sometimes be smart for managers whose compensation is tied to short-term stock price performance.)

In Q1 2025 buybacks by S&P 500 companies reached about $293.5 billion, setting a quarterly record. Recent 12-month totals have been $1.00 trillion, record-setting. Apple alone may have bought $100 billion of its own stock during 2025. Buybacks are just one factor feeding demand for stocks. Passive investments -- entities that buy index funds automatically -- don't help "price discovery"; they just push indexed stocks higher.

Various factors prop up Treasury bond prices. The Treasury has been selling bills to buy long-term bonds before maturity. Foreign central banks usually roll over U.S. debt at whatever rate is offered. U.S. banks are required to buy to retain privileges. And now the FRB itself has resumed QE, though keeping announcements low-key. Because of these factors long bond yield remains below 5% despite 3+% inflation and rising unsustainable debt. An increase in rates would increase mortgage costs and defaults.

Finance has completely changed during our lifetime. From 1968 to 2001 interest on the long bond was almost never less than 5%. Since then it's hardly ever been more than 5%. Governments are desperate to keep that rate below 5%. If they fail, expect panic.

If foreigners lose their appetite for U.S. assets, the bubble will burst.

American banks are sitting on about $500 billions of unrealized losses on bonds, MBS, etc. -- losses that don't appear on financial statements unless they are forced to sell. Commercial real estate is in a severe slump, bank loans will default; uninsured deposits may be in jeopardy.

"Shadow banking" -- hedge funds, private equity -- now exceeds normal regulated banking in total financial size. These "banks" perform functions similar to regular banks but WITHOUT any oversight, regulation, or deposit insurance. They operate with high leverage and high risk. Much of the assets of conventional banks are loans to those shadow banks. In recent months, the Fed has taken various steps to increase liquidity. Unexplained temporary liquidity injections may be caused by gambling failures among shadow banks, but we don't know -- there's no oversight.

Meanwhile some news reports continue to suggest that all is rosy.