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Chronicles in Socialism - Venezuela has Elections Sunday

So all the opposition won despite there being no legitimate democracy and exactly how is that possible?

Maduro sucks so bad he lost by more than the cheating margin.

How much is the cheating margin? Give some reliable sources.

dismal said:
Anyone who is not a mindless asshat would recognize great flaws in Venezuela's form of democracy.

Anyone who is not a mindless asshat would recognize that there are financial forces in Venezuela that exaggerate so they can take control.

dismal said:
When large numbers

How large are these numbers, like 1,000,000 people? 100,000? 10,000? 1,000? 100?

dismal said:
...of opposition leaders and news outlet owners are under imprisonment, indictment or threat you should automatically lose the benefit of the doubt.

Some people can be under imprisonment and indictment because they acted illegally, like inciting violence for example using fake conspiracy theories to call for revolution and telling them to be terrorists.

Even if it is legal for the govt to throw such people in prison, it would backfire politically when the opposition has free political speech and so the opposition will get big gains come election time.

It isn't a question of being a mindless ideologue but instead recognizing that the world is more complex than ideological fundamentalism allows for. Perhaps Maduro pushed too much and perhaps much of the opposition lied. Both can be true to extents.
 
Unquestioningly they are showing all the signs of an extremest party trying anything and everything to cling to power as popular opinion begins to go against them as their failures mount up and start to become more obvious to the population. Let's break it down and see if we can see how extremist parties with unpopular policies try to hold on to continue to advance their extreme policies.



By JUAN FORERO and ANATOLY KURMANAEV
Dec. 3, 2015 8:03 p.m. ET

CARACAS, Venezuela—Venezuela’s socialist government, facing the prospect of its first major election defeat in Sunday’s congressional vote, is fighting back against a strong opposition by resorting to a trusted formula of spreading fear and currying favor.

Certainly extremists always overstate threats, especially those from outside of the country and especially those threats that succeeded in destruction and loss of life under the extremists' watch due to their failures to properly access the threat even after being warned of it.

State workers are being pressured to vote for candidates of the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela, or PSUV, or risk losing their jobs, public employees said in interviews. In speeches and rallies, officials remind audiences how much they depend on government largess, even as they tell grandmothers that a new congress will eliminate their pensions. ...

It extreme and cowardly to eliminate or to diminish the pensions that people have paid into and counted on their whole lives. This too is an indication of an extremist party that is out of control and doesn't deserve to be in power.

If voters give the edge to the opposition, President Nicolás Maduro says his government could go into “rebellion” and refuse to share any power—intimating that he would use force if necessary.

“Imagine if they dominated the National Assembly,” Mr. Maduro said in a televised address this week. “I wouldn’t allow it, I swear, I wouldn’t let my hands be tied by anyone..."

Obstruction of anything that the opposition tries to do, even if it is something that they have themselves proposed in the past is yet another indication that they don't deserve the support and the votes of the population. Nothing could be clearer.

More than half of Venezuelan voters believe their electronically registered ballots aren’t secret, according to a recent survey by the Andrés Bello Catholic University in Caracas.

One in six voters works in the government, and every fourth benefits from social-spending programs that the government touts for hours each day in more than half a dozen state-run television channels.

“The fear of retaliation is significant,” said Benigno Alarcón, the head of political studies at the Catholic University here. “It could change the voting outcome in certain districts.”

Such tactics, and a complicated voting system that accords greater weight to rural government strongholds, might harm the opposition’s results, electoral experts say, meaning less power for Mr. Maduro’s foes in the congress even if they win.

A party that has to rely on its government granted ability to draw election districts to stay in power is an unacceptable perversion of democracy and a further sign that they don't deserve support.

The government has used a range of tools to create what Venezuelan and international electoral experts call an uneven playing field. On the complex ballot for Sunday, officials even gave a pro-government party a name and logo nearly identical to that of the opposition’s coalition.

Organizations with years of experience monitoring elections, such as the Organization of American States, have been barred from observing Sunday’s vote.

Only the guilty can object to outside, accredited election watchers, whether it is the OAS or even Jimmy Carter's democracy project. Such organizations are trained to spot election abuses that the opposition party might not recognize like the in power, crooked party denying people's right to vote because the potential voter shares a name with a convicted felon, even if the felon lives in a completely different jurisdiction. I am not saving that this has happened in this case but it is an example of how low that the most corrupt will go.

And the government has used its overwhelming media presence—including its influence on the country’s private media—to focus on its message that an opposition victory would mean chaos. ...

“It’s the everything-but-the-kitchen-sink approach to electoral manipulation,” said Harold Trinkunas, the Venezuelan-born director of the Latin America Initiative at the Brookings Institution. “They are trying to move the needle with everything they can so they can hold down the opposition numbers on election day, to ensure that they keep it to a simple majority.”

...Venezuela’s three million public employees face the most pressure. One department head at the Justice Ministry said superiors push her and others to attend pro-government rallies, where attendance is taken.

“The message is, you could lose your job,” she said, explaining how security guards are posted at the exit points of rallies to stop attendees from leaving until they are over.

...José Mirador, who sells old furniture and appliances, got a new free computer this week thanks to a recently instituted state program. He says he plans to vote for the opposition, but that the message of fear has worked. among the poor. “People want change, but they are afraid,” he said.

It seems that the government expects to lose, but are pulling out all the stops to ensure that the opposition legislature does not have enough votes for a supermajority.

In spite of polls showing a 70% margin of support for the opposition, I suspect the government will succeed. With major opposition leaders in jail, unsupervised elections, massive election funding of the party in power, and threats against the voting blocks that 70 percent is very unlikely to materialize.

I am afraid that you are right, unfortunately. Especially considering how successful other extremist parties have been in other countries at clinging to power in the face of a growing majority against them.

I'm betting some posters still haven't recognized the irony of complaining about these things when Maduro does them but being quite happy when the GOP does them.
 
Maduro sucks so bad he lost by more than the cheating margin.

How much is the cheating margin? Give some reliable sources.

dismal said:
Anyone who is not a mindless asshat would recognize great flaws in Venezuela's form of democracy.

Anyone who is not a mindless asshat would recognize that there are financial forces in Venezuela that exaggerate so they can take control.

dismal said:
When large numbers

How large are these numbers, like 1,000,000 people? 100,000? 10,000? 1,000? 100?

dismal said:
...of opposition leaders and news outlet owners are under imprisonment, indictment or threat you should automatically lose the benefit of the doubt.

Some people can be under imprisonment and indictment because they acted illegally, like inciting violence for example using fake conspiracy theories to call for revolution and telling them to be terrorists.

Even if it is legal for the govt to throw such people in prison, it would backfire politically when the opposition has free political speech and so the opposition will get big gains come election time.

It isn't a question of being a mindless ideologue but instead recognizing that the world is more complex than ideological fundamentalism allows for. Perhaps Maduro pushed too much and perhaps much of the opposition lied. Both can be true to extents.

Jeez, you're really taking this hard.

It's actually a pretty good day for democracy. The Venezuelan people showed it was possible for a government to be crappy and destructive enough to be voted out in spite of all the anti-democratic steps it took.

If Maduro had won it would have been a very dark day.

Cheer up. The world is a better place.
 
...Maduro has sent in the army to keep certain polling stations open for "extra votes" - he's pulled out the stops...

Not that either you or Maduro is interested in democracy, but why the scare quotes over people voting?

Because it's obviously to give them time to stuff the ballot boxes rather than really about voting.
 
I'm a bit surprised at the result. It remains to be seen if Maduro will try to find some pretext for a military coup.
 
I'm a bit surprised at the result. It remains to be seen if Maduro will try to find some pretext for a military coup.

With what? Given the current level of oil prices, he's kind of close to needing to pay his soldiers with hugs.
 
I'm a bit surprised at the result. It remains to be seen if Maduro will try to find some pretext for a military coup.

I doubt it.
By the way, Maduro still may have strong legal or semi-legal options for full political control.
For example, the number of seats gained by the opposition is unknown at this point. They have secured 99, but 22 are up for grabs.
If they don't reach 3/5 (i.e., 101 lawmakers), then Maduro will retain much of the power, since before the new lawmakers are sworn in, he will pass a new valid law (he already has one that lasts up to Dec-31) allowing him to pass legislation by decree (i.e., without the lawmakers) for a couple of years.
Without 3/5 of the lawmakers, the opposition won't be able to abrogate that law, and even though they could pass regular laws intended to abrogate some of Maduro's (I'm not sure, but I think they keep the power to legislate even if Maduro gains it as well), he may respond by abrogating them right after lawmakers pass them, whereas lawmakers need to follow procedures that would take a minimum of two full days (in practice, much more), but even then, the President can send the law back for revision, etc. - or sign it and just abrogate it, keeping the previous law in place.
Moreover, if they want to amend the Constitution, they will need an ever bigger majority - 2/3, or 112 lawmakers.

In addition, Maduro has 10 days to promulgate a law, and in that period, he can send it to the Supreme Tribunal, which in may strike it down as unconstitutional. And the members of the Supreme Tribunal are (at least most of them) unconditional supporters of the regime.
 
With what? Given the current level of oil prices, he's kind of close to needing to pay his soldiers with hugs.
Actually Veenzuela is in a worse shape than most in that regard. Their oil is heavy and thus sells at a discount and under Chavista mismanagement of PDVSA the oil production has actually gone down considerably.
But they still manage to find enough cash to sponsor Pastor Maldonado in F1.
lotusmaldonado2016_1440x655c.jpg
 
I know we're supposed to think that keeping more oil in the ground is a bad thing.

But it isn't.

To think it is a bad thing is to be an idiot.
 
I know we're supposed to think that keeping more oil in the ground is a bad thing.
It's definitely a bad thing when it happens because of mismanagement and failure to keep up with necessary investments.
Or do you really think PDVSA intentionally reduced output for ecological reasons?
 
I know we're supposed to think that keeping more oil in the ground is a bad thing.

But it isn't.

To think it is a bad thing is to be an idiot.

You must be a big fan of Maduro selling gasoline at $0.10 per gallon.
 
I know we're supposed to think that keeping more oil in the ground is a bad thing.
It's definitely a bad thing when it happens because of mismanagement and failure to keep up with necessary investments.
Or do you really think PDVSA intentionally reduced output for ecological reasons?

It's a good thing no matter how it happens.
 
I know we're supposed to think that keeping more oil in the ground is a bad thing.

But it isn't.

To think it is a bad thing is to be an idiot.

You must be a big fan of Maduro selling gasoline at $0.10 per gallon.

You seem to have all kinds of things in your ass you like to pull out and examine.

I support democracy in Venezuela. My control over that matter is very weak though.

I support democracy everywhere.

But there are many who cry for and support dictatorship after dictatorship. They are called capitalists.
 
I say that it is a good day for democracy. I don't know how moderate the opposition is, they seem to be a collection of everyone opposed to the current socialist government, which seems to be everyone else besides that current government. They will eventually break apart and go their separate ways but whatever, they have to be better than the current extremist government.

And we will have to wait to see if max can apply his anti-vote rigging, anti-extremist principles more widely or if his principles are only applied to parties who have a political philosophy opposed to his.
 
... Give some reliable sources.

dismal said:
Anyone who is not a mindless asshat would recognize great flaws in Venezuela's form of democracy.

Anyone who is not a mindless asshat would recognize that there are financial forces in Venezuela that exaggerate so they can take control.

And those "financial forces" are, and "some reliable numbers" on their exaggeration is? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller...Bueller?

dismal said:
...of opposition leaders and news outlet owners are under imprisonment, indictment or threat you should automatically lose the benefit of the doubt.

Some people can be under imprisonment and indictment because they acted illegally, like inciting violence for example using fake conspiracy theories to call for revolution and telling them to be terrorists.

Even if it is legal for the govt to throw such people in prison, it would backfire politically when the opposition has free political speech and so the opposition will get big gains come election time.

It isn't a question of being a mindless ideologue but instead recognizing that the world is more complex than ideological fundamentalism allows for. Perhaps Maduro pushed too much and perhaps much of the opposition lied. Both can be true to extents.

Perhaps Maduro pushed too much? This "is not a question of" a mildly distasteful business in a complex world, but of your narrative of apologetics - adopting panicky rationalizations on "complexity" in order to sell yourself (and us) on a false equivalency.

This is about a socialist party and 'revolutionary' government turning an oil rich state into a society with the highest inflation rate in the world, and delivering second highest homicide rate in the world. It's about extreme privation, rocketing poverty, the 1,000,000 people who decided to get out, and the most polarized population (perhaps in the world) short of civil war.

This is about 6 or 7 leaders of the opposition being "disqualified" for various bogus reasons (e.g. one testified to the OAS about human rights abuses so she was thrown out of the National Assembly and barred from future elections).

Its about the leader of the opposition, Lopez, getting a 14 year sentence on trumped up charges - the full extent of which was exposed by one of the State prosecutors after the conviction, he fled the country and revealed the sorry business.

It's about newspapers, broadcasters, and journalists being censored, shutdown, and prevented from leaving the country.

https://cpj.org/americas/venezuela/

This is not "complex", it is simple: a highly corrupt (rating only 19 on the 100 point scale of transparency in corruption), mindlessly ideological, and relentlessly authoritarian party runs (or ran) Venezuela.

Thankfully, the OAS and Latin leaders have convinced Maduro to back off his threats to impose a military dictatorship.
 
So when is it known what the actual seat allocation is? How can 19 seats remain "undeclared"?
 
I have said all along that Chavez and Maduro both relied too heavily on oil revenues. I am surprised to see that it has lasted this long, considering the shopkeeper idea Maduro adopted. Democracy is a must and it does not just come out of trouble...it rarely comes from disaster and social upheaval. Naomi Klein has a bookThe Shock Doctrine about what you expect from upheaval...Disaster Capitalism. Let us hope for the sake of Venezuelans that their democracy gives them a more realistic approach to self governance and does not elect right wing lunatics who do not care one iota for the poor. They still care for the oil.

There is no doubt in my mind that U.S. oil interests have played some part in the current crisis...mostly by simply culturing impressions of Maduro and he is right that they played a part. I do feel however that he did the most damage to his position. I only hope there are enough clear headed left people in the government to keep the right wing from taking over and signing everything over to an American oil company. People in South America have every right to want the U.S. out of their countries. The problem is that U.S. interests never stop trying to exploit the area.
 
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