2026 Midterm Elections

[bilby]

Then Trump could use it as a legitimate reason to go about destroying the drug trade there

The drug trade in Venezuela is essentially non-existent; They have one, of course, as does every nation on Earth, but it's tiny, and irrelevant to the USA.

All of the talk about the "Venezuelan drug trade" and "Venezuelan drug cartels" is propaganda that relies on the completely dependable failure of US voters to comprehend that Colombia and Venezuela are two totally different countries.

If drugs were the issue here, the US would be illegally attacking Colombian, not Venezuelan, targets.

Venezuela is the one with the oil, not the one with the drugs. Colombia is by FAR the largest supplier of cocaine to tne US; But fortunately for them, they have no worthwhile amount of oil.

This isn't hard. But it's just hard enough that the MAGA propaganda machine can make Americans believe that 'Venezuela' and 'drugs' are somehow related entities.

They are not.

 

[southernhybrid]

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/dona...91ebae4b0fb6244b11ad5?utm_campaign=msn-recirc

Maybe Trump's constant derangement will help the Dems in the midterms. Oh no. We are all going to be accused of sedition or treason.

Trump touted some of his administration’s purported accomplishments that he claimed had “created an ‘aura’ around the United States of America that has led every Country in the World to respect us more than ever before.”
On his health, he then wrote:

“In addition to all of that, I go out of my way to do long, thorough, and very boring Medical Examinations at the Great Walter Reed National Military Medical Center, seen and supervised by top doctors, all of whom have given me PERFECT Marks — Some have even said they have never seen such Strong Results. I do these Tests because I owe it to our Country. In addition to the Medical, I have done something that no other President has done, on three separate occasions, the last one being recently, by taking what is known as a Cognitive Examination, something which few people would be able to do very well, including those working at The New York Times, and I ACED all three of them in front of large numbers of doctors and experts, most of whom I do not know. I have been told that few people have been able to ‘ace’ this Examination and, in fact, most do very poorly, which is why many other Presidents have decided not to take it at all.”

Trump added:

“Despite all of this, the time and work involved, The New York Times, and some others, like to pretend that I am ‘slowing up,’ am maybe not as sharp as I once was, or am in poor physical health, knowing that it is not true, and knowing that I work very hard, probably harder than I have ever worked before. I will know when I am ‘slowing up,’ but it’s not now!”

The president then warned:

“After all of the work I have done with Medical Exams, Cognitive Exams, and everything else, I actually believe it’s seditious, perhaps even treasonous, for The New York Times, and others, to consistently do FAKE reports in order to libel and demean ‘THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES.’ They are true Enemies of the People, and we should do something about it.”

Critics on social media slammed the post as “absolutely crazed” and pointed out the hypocrisy, given Trump’s repeated attacks on the health of his predecessor, former President Joe Biden.

 

[SLD]

Gas prices just went up 30 cents a gallon today.

No surprise there:

Trump says U.S. seized oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela​

“Shippers will likely be much more cautious and hesitant about loading Venezuelan crude going forward,” said Matt Smith, an oil analyst at Kpler.

This looks like he's trying to make them implode. He closed the airspace and not allowing trade. This is siege warfare without the violence (yet).

Water is wet.
Trump is a power-mad sociopathic killer with the world's most powerful military at his disposal.
Venezuela has the world's largest oil reserves.
This is as predictable as gravity.

For the life of me I can't understand why they don't just get it the fuck over with. We went to war in the ME (Iraq) over oil. Bush/Cheney were willing to get into a quagmire to secure those reserves and facilities and endure Islamic backlash, which wasn't even a gamble, but a certainty.

Meanwhile, Venezuala is firmly in America's sphere of influence. Nobody would come to their defense and the population wouldn't rally against American forces to any degree that could begin to resemble Iraq. Then Trump could use it as a legitimate reason to go about destroying the drug trade there by using real military might against it, which would then set a precedent for how to handle the drug cartels in other South and Central American countries.

I'm not saying I'd support any of it (I wouldn't), but compared to what this nation has engaged in prior to now, it seems to have all the pieces in place for surface justification.

I’m not that confident that the United States can easily defeat Venezuela. They might triumph initially. But I could see them quickly degenerating into an insurgency. I don’t think the population would support the United state’s intervention. The whole area would be destabilized. It would be a much worse decision than invading Iraq. Our allies would be appalled. It could spell the end of NATO. China would be so pissed they might dump their treasuries. Nations like Columbia and others would probably offer sanctuary to guerrillas. They might not be able to stop them. It would give a green light to China to invade Taiwan. Iran could respond by blocking the straits of Hormuz or other actions. Oil would skyrocket. The insanity of this is beyond the pale. It will bring about our downfall as a world power. It will be extremely bad.

 

[Derec]

Awww that's so cute. Gasoline is only one part of the energy picture.

It is. It was offered as an example.

The bigger issue is natural gas, because natural gas is the backbone of the US energy grid.

Good thing too, and thanks to the shale revolution. NG is much cleaner than coal that it dethroned.

Around 43% of all US electricity is generated from natural gas, and both heating and AI data centers use it too. So when natural gas prices rise, nearly everything in the energy economy gets more expensive.

Ok, let's look at NG.

While NG is more expensive than during the low set in 2024, it is not a "punch in the throat" increase either. The price is lower than in late 2022 and through 2023 for example.

Trump is proposing a major increase in natural gas exports. That is the part you are not mentioning. I wonder why. Ok I lied, I really don't.

What's wrong with exporting a commodity that we have in abundance? LNG exports to EU made those countries less dependent on NG imported from Russia and allowed them a stronger response to Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Do you have a link to that proposal? I know Trump undid Biden's "pause" in LNG exports that he imposed for no good reason. We talked about that before on this forum.

When you take a domestic energy source and start selling more of it overseas, you shrink supply at home and push US prices upward. So, if the plan is to expand LNG exports, Americans will not get cheaper electricity or heating. We will be competing with Europe and Asia for our own fuel supply. Investors and exporters benefit. US households pay more. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

So you are calling for energy/economic isolationism?

The GOP is out here blabbing about lower energy bills on TV while pushing policies that actually make natural gas more expensive. And honestly, this probably won’t move the needle in the midterms at all, because Americans will be too busy arguing about Epstein, war crimes, UFOs, celebrity scandals, or whatever the for-profit media machine is serving as the “outrage special” of the week.

Higher wholesale price encourages production. Lower wholesale price discourages it. A higher consumer price encourages more efficient use. So it's not like lower prices due to isolationism are as great as you suggest.

And here’s the part I guarantee will happen: When energy prices spike because of Trump’s policies, half the country will blame “Democrat clean energy mandates” instead of connecting the dots right in front of them. The correlation is obvious, but nobody’s going to stop doomscrolling long enough to make it.

I doubt energy prices will spike because of allowing more exports. Policies like banning all fracking, like some Dems (incl. Bernie and Kamala) are advocating, would be disastrous for our energy production though.

 

[Derec]

You don't understand the QAnon mindset. Many commodity prices fluctuate so much that a MAGAt can toss out a dozen examples and then smirk like he should win a Prize.

It has nothing to do with "QAnon" or "MAGAt". There are many commodities, but no energy price metric shows a "punch in the throat" that Gospel claimed in post #7.

 

[SLD]

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/dona...91ebae4b0fb6244b11ad5?utm_campaign=msn-recirc

Maybe Trump's constant derangement will help the Dems in the midterms. Oh no. We are all going to be accused of sedition or treason.

If only he said that. I suspect it will get much worse. I suspect he will openly say that the democrats stole the election and that we should take matters into our own hands and do violent actions against those that oppose him, maybe say something like, "The demoncrats have stolen this election. It's time for real Americans to take back this country, with their god given guns." He really is that deranged. I suspect that many of his followers will take him up on it, hoping he'll grant them pardons or something. He thinks he is all powerful. He thinks democrats are pussies and won't react. But he will openly call for violence in a tweet. He actually already has in some limited circumstances.

 

[Derec]

Yes. But only if you’re trying to transact real estate, which you’re obviously not, so don’t worry about it.

I am not transacting any real estate deals at the moment, sure, so why don't you show me some evidence that the "housing market is in flames".
Not that real estate prices are high, but that the market can meaningfully be described as being "in flames". Because that was the hyperbolic claim made by Gospel in post #7.

A piercing insight from our resident Trumpapoligist…

Not a "Trumpapoligist"[sic], just disputing Gospel's inaccurate claims. Like that energy costs are punching people in their proverbial throats.

But these prices are not nearly so low as they were during Trump 1 when the price of oil was LITERALLY less than zero. Remember how great THAT was? No?

Gasoline prices were never below zero, but oil futures went negative for a time because the Pandemic destroyed demand while oil production did not immediately adjust, resulting in shortages of storage space.
What does that have to do with the fact that gasoline prices are lower than in much of recent history, which contradicts Gospels assertion that "energy costs [are] punching everyone in the throat"?

Quelled surprise! Ah, the glory days … killing over a million Americans, and not a word of thanks from The Haters!

Quelled surprise? Your surprise was put an end to? And what are you babbling about, and what does that have to do with Gospel's assertion? Nobody here is claiming that Trump's handling of the Pandemic was great, except for the Operation Warp Speed which he is undermining with RFK Jr. and MAHA nonsense. But again, none of that has anything to do with the issue I was addressing.

But remember: GAS PRICES ARE DIWN IN REAL TERMS!!!

Which is relevant to Gospel's claims, unlike your irrelevant ramblings about the Pandemic.

Gas prices being the same as a year ago means they’re down by over 12% in real terms because that is how much less every dollar is worth.

US did not have a 12% inflation rate in 2025. What are you babbling about?

FUCKING MORONS think gas prices are down, and that’s all that counts. Virtually everything else going through the roof is beyond their Ken to understand.

[citation needed] that "virtually everything else is going through the roof".

 

[Derec]

Unevidenced accusations

Seriously, anyone saying bullshit like this needs to get fucking primaried.

Where's the evidence then? And why were no charges brought, if there is so much evidence? Why waste time with hush money, if a silver 50 cal bullet was available?

Trump is a fucking child rapist and I really hope everyone defending and gaslighting for him gets all that they deserve.

Again, what is the evidence?

 

[Derec]

It's not that simple.
For one oil is a global market.

Nothing is "that simple". But discussion posts are not dissertations, or we'd be here all day.
Of course oil is a global market, far more so than NG for example, because it is so much easier to transport.

Why would an oil producer sell below the market value?
Just to help you at the pump?

They wouldn't, of course.
But market value would increase if US dropped production from >10Mbbl/d to half that because of misguided policies advocated by the likes of Kamala, Bernie and Fauxachontas (aka Thin Lizzy).

You really think that would not have actually caused energy costs to punch everyone in the throat?

Fracked oil is light, so it is shipped to places that have that kind of refinery.
USA does not have many light crude refineries.

But there are some, as you admit. Light sweet crude can also be used to blend with superheavy oil from Athabasca (Canada) and Orinoco (Venezuela) basins. Fracking involves a lot of tech, and drillers would not be investing the capital if it weren't worthwhile. At a certain point, marginal costs exceed marginal benefits - due to saturation of demand, refining capacity, etc. - but that point is at a much higher production level than it would be without fracking.

 

[Derec]

… Is the mantra of an “I’m not a trumpsucker”.
It’s very difficult to think of any major criminal offense of which he is not almost certainly guilty, and evidence is all over the place if you don’t have your head up Trump’s ass.

Asserting there is evidence is calling everybody who asks to see it a "trumpsucker" is not a substitute for, you know, actually showing evidence.

 

[Colonel Sanders]

Gas prices just went up 30 cents a gallon today.

No surprise there:

Trump says U.S. seized oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela​

“Shippers will likely be much more cautious and hesitant about loading Venezuelan crude going forward,” said Matt Smith, an oil analyst at Kpler.

This looks like he's trying to make them implode. He closed the airspace and not allowing trade. This is siege warfare without the violence (yet).

Water is wet.
Trump is a power-mad sociopathic killer with the world's most powerful military at his disposal.
Venezuela has the world's largest oil reserves.
This is as predictable as gravity.

For the life of me I can't understand why they don't just get it the fuck over with. We went to war in the ME (Iraq) over oil. Bush/Cheney were willing to get into a quagmire to secure those reserves and facilities and endure Islamic backlash, which wasn't even a gamble, but a certainty.

Meanwhile, Venezuala is firmly in America's sphere of influence. Nobody would come to their defense and the population wouldn't rally against American forces to any degree that could begin to resemble Iraq. Then Trump could use it as a legitimate reason to go about destroying the drug trade there by using real military might against it, which would then set a precedent for how to handle the drug cartels in other South and Central American countries.

I'm not saying I'd support any of it (I wouldn't), but compared to what this nation has engaged in prior to now, it seems to have all the pieces in place for surface justification.

I’m not that confident that the United States can easily defeat Venezuela. They might triumph initially. But I could see them quickly degenerating into an insurgency. I don’t think the population would support the United state’s intervention. The whole area would be destabilized. It would be a much worse decision than invading Iraq. Our allies would be appalled. It could spell the end of NATO. China would be so pissed they might dump their treasuries. Nations like Columbia and others would probably offer sanctuary to guerrillas. They might not be able to stop them. It would give a green light to China to invade Taiwan. Iran could respond by blocking the straits of Hormuz or other actions. Oil would skyrocket. The insanity of this is beyond the pale. It will bring about our downfall as a world power. It will be extremely bad.

I don't believe any of that is likely. The U.S. invading Venezuela is a farfetched analogue for China invading Taiwan. I shouldn't have to explain why (and I won't waste time doing so).

Columbia wants no trouble. They wouldn't harbor guerillas.

Iran would do exactly dick. They'd make some noise but would let it go as quickly as possible. They have zero interests in the region and know damn well that Trump will happily take out whatever the hell he wants to in a matter of less than an hour.

"Bringing about the downfall of the U.S. as a world power." I should have just read that sentence and not written a single word in a response.

 

[laughing dog]

Trump is trying to bolster his ratings with his bullying of Venezuala by distracting attention from the economy.

 

[bilby]

US retail electricity price:

 

[Shadowy Man]

US retail electricity price:

Wow! We’re rich! Look how much our energy is worth!

 

[Tigers!]

US retail electricity price:

Suffering just like Aussies are.

 

[southernhybrid]

I thought this thread was about the midterms, but most of it isn't really about anything related to the midterms. The president doesn't control the price of oil or utilities either. Why aren't we talking about the programs he, with the help of the idiots in Congress have allowed him to drastically cut? People aren't happy about having programs cut back, including SNAP for example.

Plenty of Trump supporters are low income people who need help. People aren't happy about the Republicans refusing to renew the subsidies for the ACA. Those are a few examples of what will influence voters, as well as the price of groceries, some of which have spiked to the insane tariffs.

People aren't happy about seeing immigrants, including those who are here legally being brutalized by ICE in some cases and then taken to horrible detention centers. Even low information voters often know the importance of hard working immigrants that have come here legally or who are asking for asylum. Some have been arrested despite following all the rules. Even some citizens have been swept up by ICE. People aren't happy about that.

If the tariffs continue, lots of things will become unaffordable for a lot of Americans. Right now, polls have the Dems way ahead. The Dems just won an election in a red district in Georgia for a state representative. Why aren't we discussing those things?

Even the insane gerrymandered redistricting might not help the Republicans much, as there are plenty of people who have said they are voting for Democrats for the first time in their lives. I've met a few and I'm sure there are others. Neither party is perfect. No politician or party will please everyone, but there is one party that is destroying the country and the other is at least trying to save it.

Trump's cult is shrinking.

And, btw, Indiana just rejected Trump's approved voting map, so don't give up hope.

 

[ZiprHead]

Ok, let's look at NG.

While NG is more expensive than during the low set in 2024, it is not a "punch in the throat" increase either. The price is lower than in late 2022 and through 2023 for example.

Is that the wholesale or retail prices? People know what they are paying.

 

[Derec]

And my point was that it’s a bad example, duh! Can you provide another?

Why? It's a major part of the energy costs for the average person.
According to the EIA, average household spent "slightly more" on gasoline than on "electricity, natural gas, and fuel oil combined", at least as of 2021.
And it's one energy expenditure whose price is very visible for the average person, displayed in large digits on gas stations. Therefore it's an even bigger part of the perception of energy costs than its actual, sizeable, share would suggest.
So why do you think it's a bad example? Because it does not give you the answer you want?

Perhaps I’m just unclear as to what it was supposed to be an example of.

It's an example of energy prices not punching everyone in the proverbial throat, as Gospel claimed. I was replying to his post #7.

In my part of the country gasoline dropped to $2.50. Meanwhile, my electric bill went up 40%, which seems to be a thing in the Midwest and Northeast.

I checked my Georgia Power bills from this and last November, and the price of a kWh of electricity went down 8% for me.
You say "electric bill went up". If you mean the "electric bill", your usage might just have gone up. You really have to compare the prices of a kWh to gauge whether your price of electricity went up, and by how much. It's like comparing how much spent on gasoline per month, rather than comparing per gallon prices. The former depends on usage.

 

[Derec]

One thing you didn't note was low interest rates were responsible for housing values going up a lot. Making housing more unaffordable, especially when rates would inevitably go up.

I can't note every single thing. But you are right, even if that does not exactly support Gospel's thesis from post #7 that the housing market is in flames.

And 50-year mortgages, which is better known as "renting".

Not quite, but unless you can buy a house in your 20s, it's still a quite ridiculous term.
Note that Drumpf is not the first to suggest this:
From teh Grauniad: No 10 considers 50-year mortgages that could pass down generations

And NIMBY is a huge problem regarding that. People want more housing, just as long as it doesn't make their housing value slow in value growth.

NIMBYism often rightly gets a bad rap, but sometimes opposition to too much development is justified. Plopping a large residential tower into a neighborhood increases traffic and need for services, thus changing the whole neighborhood. Ripping up greenspace to build housing, one of Mamdani's plans, reduces the quality of life of people living there.
It's not just dollars and cents, quality of life matters too.

The truth is housing is a problem because of the two housing booms born out of the uber cheap interest rates we had. Interest rates now... are LOW. They just aren't 3 or 4%. And that rates existed to keep the economy chugging when not much else was going too good. And yes, there is the trap of being in a 4% mortgage and not wanting to lose it to pay a notably higher mortgage. We can't exactly allow ourselves to justify inflation just to make it so people can move up in their housing.

So, what's your solution?
Note that even without cheap interest rates, pressures on housing - especially in desirable areas - would have increased with rising population. For that and other reasons we need to embrace stable population as goal, not ever increasing population. Much less exponentially increasing population, which a stable rate of increase means.

There is no easy fix. Too bad Trump said he had lots of easy fixes. If we have an election in 2026, that will burn his ass as much as it did Harris's.

Politicians often promise easy fixes. That is not specific to Trump or even Republicans. See Mamdani's sophomoric policy ideas, or Kamala's vibes-laden campaign.

 

[Derec]

Rents have gone through the roof where I live, but the cost of homes for sale, not so much. When we tried to sell our home here in Georgia, the appraisal was just 21/2 times what we paid for it over 27 years ago, and we spent almost half of that on updates, roof replacements etc.

10.5x increase is pretty good. I kid, I know you mean 2.5x.
And yes, renting vs. owning comparison depends not only on one's circumstances, but also on location.

I don't see what that has to do with the midterms,

I think it was James "Ragin' Cajun" Carville who said "it's the economy, stupid".

but I did see a poll last night that had the Democrats leading by 14% in the midterms, so there is hope.

Generic ballot is generic. I fear Dems will leave many winnable seats on the table through stupid candidate selection in the primaries. For example, Jasmine Crackpot is leading the Senate primary polls in Texas.