Yet another war, this time with Iran

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

"shootin' starts", as in our military folks are putting their lives on the line again. He, or whomever is posting, is so nonchalant regarding the use of military force. How much did we spend and risk to rescue the two pilots?

Trump is being bombastic, but his blink with the ceasefire confirmed what Iran already knew, there was no way in heck troops were going on the ground in Iran. The entire lack of a massive draft/mobilization to the Middle East kind of gave that away. All the US can do is bomb and lob missiles. Can do damage, but most of the damage has to have been done, except to civil infrastructure.

Trump fucked up. He fucked up royally. Israel killed the Theocratic leader, but at the cost of losing the Strait of Hormuz permanently (years). Israel gained little, the US gained almost nothing, the planet is going to pay.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

This is the epitome of asymmetric warfare. Iran needs only the plausible threat of tiny numbers of low-tech weapons, to deny shipping the ability to transit the strait. To stop them from posing such a threat, the US would need to mount a massive ground invasion, and to occupy and fully pacify all resistance, along at least five hundred miles of coastline, back to a distance of at least a hundred miles inland. I sincerely doubt that the US could do that, but if they can it will entail very significant US casualties, and a genocidally lax set of Rules of Engagement.

Quite. Iran doesn't need to sink every ship that goes through the Strait of Hormuz. They need to be feasibly feared of sinking just one. These ships are expensive. Their cargo can be in the hundreds of millions.

To make things worse, the Strait of Hormuz isn't the widest either. It wouldn't take too much to choke it off with a burning ship. Iran has already shoved ships to the north. Anything close to the Arabian Peninsula has been declared a hazard zone by Iran. Is it mined? Is there a risk of an attack if ships go that route? It is ironic (the wrong definition) that Trump has become a victim of Perception mattering much more than the Truth, because he has built his life around that premise. And now due to Perception >> Truth, Iran has the most control they've ever had globally. Two months ago, Iran was a mild belligerent responsible for supporting occasional acts of terrorism as well as the October 7th massacre (I'm not minimizing the attacks, just indicating the scope and field of influence was limited). Today, they can make the entire globe hurt without firing as much as a single bullet.

And even if they did all that, it might well not be sufficient to persuade tanker and cargo ship captains, owners, and insurers that the risk was sufficiently low as to make running the strait an acceptable risk to take.

Realistically, the only way to reopen Hormuz is to have Iran agree not to target ships transiting those waters.

There is lies the rub. Hormuz is never going to reopen like it was before. Unless Israel, the US, and Iran magically stop existing, those days are in the rear view mirror.

You can't bomb people into liking you, or into making a deal with you.

What do you mean? It worked recently in Gaza and Ukraine. That is why Hamas no longer exists and Russia rules Ukraine.

 

[aupmanyav]

My favorite Field Marshall.
Fucking Trump.

Failed Marshal, who surrendered on the fourth day of the Indo-Pakistan war and was rewarded with the title by Shahbaz Sharif, Pakistan PM.

To rebuild Gaza, Trump starts the Board of Peace, Membership USD 1 billion - US pays no more than 1 billion. To pay back Iran damages, the whole world pays USD 2 million per ship - US pays nothing. And people say that he is not smart.

 

[crazyfingers]

Trump is the biggest fuckup on the planet at this time.

Long term Trump's war on Iran will likely strengthen Russia, China and Iran.

The US has negotiated a fragile ceasefire that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but Asian allies that depend on the waterway are already being forced to rely on others for energy security– to the benefit of America’s top adversaries.

..

US allies Japan, Thailand, South Korea and the Philippines have looked to broker deals with Iran to ensure the safe delivery of oil and natural gas. Asian countries are also buying up more natural resources from US rival Russia, while China has signaled its willingness to help alleviate fuel shortages and deepen energy collaboration with nearby economies such as Australia, the Philippines, and even Taiwan.

...

“The White House is caught in a trap of its own making if the April expiration dates arrive without lower oil prices,” Vigil wrote. “The Trump administration will soon face a difficult choice that will now be scrutinized by both sides of the aisle: double down by renewing the waivers that benefit US adversaries or reimpose sanctions on a market the United States helped destabilize.”

https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/10/world/us-asia-allies-energy-security-intl-hnk

 

[TV and credit cards]

View attachment 54007

To what extent these are Trump's words are irrelevant. He put his name to it. They're his.
It reads like he is desperate to appeal to his 36% hard MAGA cohort but by posting this I think he loses a little more of his base.
He comes out in a cowboy hat and six shooters, it's game over.

 

[bilby]

To make things worse, the Strait of Hormuz isn't the widest either. It wouldn't take too much to choke it off with a burning ship.

It's twenty miles wide; The peacetime safety arrangement had two parallel two mile wide lanes separated by a two mile wide median, and the new lanes Iran has imposed don't overlap with the old.

It would take more than one burning ship to obstruct the strait entirely, even assuming fairly generous safety margins; But there's a real possibility that a large part of that area is now mined.

Iranian news agencies published this chart on Thursday April 9th, showing a "Hazardous Area" that covers the old shipping lanes, with new lanes much closer to the Iranian coast; Whether that area is actually mined is uncertain, but the threat that it could have been is probably enough.

 

[southernhybrid]

Has anyone mentioned that bringing back the draft is being considered. Get your protests ready young ones and start to realize what boomers had to deal with during the Viet Nam War. Sadly, this could be even worse! Soon, you will be using our hippy slang, not that I think we currently have any members here who are young enough to be drafted, but some of you might have kids who are. Have Bannon go first, assuming he has no bone spurs.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/could-u-bring-back-draft-174131891.html

As the war with Iran intensifies, it has reignited a concern that usually bubbles up when the U.S. enters into conflict with another country: Could the United States bring back the military draft?

The anxiety isn’t entirely surprising, even as the standoff enters a tenuous two-week ceasefire. The Trump administration has signaled the possibility of a longer fight, saying it’s keeping “options on the table.” And a new policy set to take effect in December will automatically register eligible men with the Selective Service system, adding to the unease.

 

[Toni]

All these people who have been dragging their feet about taking back our democracy, and who will be whinging later about how "no one could have known" this would happen, the world will neither forgive nor forget what you have done, nor entertain your pointed, intentional ignorance as a justification for it. You did this. Trump never claimed to be anything but what he was, you sanewashed him into perceived political legitimacy.

That simply is not true. Trump has always claimed to be the peace president. So much so he become famously jealous about the nobel peace prize.

Democrats are now rightfully calling Trump a hypocrite. But MAGA supporters are rightfully calling him a complete betrayal to their values.

"Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me" seems to have been forgotten by MAGA supporters.

Really, why would any rational person believe anything on Trump's say so?

They, as a group, don’t realize they were ever fooled. A few are waking up but a lot are still basking in the glory of owning the libs…

Oh, the thrill of hurting people who are smarter, nicer and better off! Especially since it’s now been demonstrated that a stupid, ignorant racist man can get as many chicks as he wants, especially those primo underaged or barely legal ones and rule the world!

 

[Toni]

We cannot compete with younger, more ambitious nations on questions of industrial production.

Youth and ambition have nothing to do with it.

The US (and the rest of the developed world) cannot compete with nations whose workforce will accept lower pay and harsher working conditions than workers in developed nations will tolerate.

The US partially offsets this by importing workers from Latin America, and refusing them the few labour rights and protections that US citizens have.

Which is the less smart of the two possible solutions. You can either lower your own standards until you are competitive; Or you can make the developing world's workers wealthy enough to become less competitive.

This is already happening; China is looking to Africa for cheap labour, just as the US looks to China.

Eventually the world will run short of poor people, and we will have to get machines to do the drudge labour.

We can do exactly that. The fact is that as any group of people start to realize that there are better, easier an da less dangerous ways of doing things: that’s what they want.

The only way to ‘solve’ that is to create a permanent underclass of nearly enslaved workers and hope that you can oppress them enough that they will be too tired to revolt. At least until after you die.

 

[bilby]

We cannot compete with younger, more ambitious nations on questions of industrial production.

Youth and ambition have nothing to do with it.

The US (and the rest of the developed world) cannot compete with nations whose workforce will accept lower pay and harsher working conditions than workers in developed nations will tolerate.

The US partially offsets this by importing workers from Latin America, and refusing them the few labour rights and protections that US citizens have.

Which is the less smart of the two possible solutions. You can either lower your own standards until you are competitive; Or you can make the developing world's workers wealthy enough to become less competitive.

This is already happening; China is looking to Africa for cheap labour, just as the US looks to China.

Eventually the world will run short of poor people, and we will have to get machines to do the drudge labour.

We can do exactly that. The fact is that as any group of people start to realize that there are better, easier an da less dangerous ways of doing things: that’s what they want.

Do they? Generally I see them not wanting that, because it will put them out of work.

If a machine is invented that can do my job for me, suddenly I am no longer allowed to eat.

The only way to ‘solve’ that is to create a permanent underclass of nearly enslaved workers and hope that you can oppress them enough that they will be too tired to revolt. At least until after you die.

Indeed. But that hope seems assured, as long as the underclass are in the position that they must either work or starve.

 

[Derec]

Trump is the biggest fuckup on the planet at this time.

Long term Trump's war on Iran will likely strengthen Russia, China and Iran.

Only if he TACOs and gives up now, which is apparently what people on here want.

If Iran's insist on closing the Strait to traffic they do not approve of, US must close it to Iranian traffic. Board and take over all Iranian-affiliated tankers. Make Kharg oil terminal inoperable. In other words ...

 

[Harry Bosch]

Trump is the biggest fuckup on the planet at this time.

Long term Trump's war on Iran will likely strengthen Russia, China and Iran.

Only if he TACOs and gives up now, which is apparently what people on here want.

If Iran's insist on closing the Strait to traffic they do not approve of, US must close it to Iranian traffic. Board and take over all Iranian-affiliated tankers. Make Kharg oil terminal inoperable. In other words ...

Buddy! Why would the Mullahs care about that? They don’t give a damn about their people let alone their economy.

 

[bilby]

If Iran's insist on closing the Strait to traffic they do not approve of, US must close it to Iranian traffic. Board and take over all Iranian-affiliated tankers. Make Kharg oil terminal inoperable. In other words

Piracy, in other words.

Two wrongs make a right, in other words.

We don't care how much we or our allies suffer, as long as our enemy is also suffering, in other words.

Schoolyard reasoning from infantile morons, in other words.

The US, having (like Iran) failed to ratify UNCLOS, have no lawful basis to demand Iran open the strait. Iran has the ability to close it, and has done so.

The US could close Hormuz to Iranian vessels, or even to "Iranian affiliated" vessels (however they want to define that), but there seems no reason to expect that doing so will have any serious negative effect on Iranian resolve to keep the strait closed for "US affiliated" shipping.

When your victim has swallowed his lunch money to stop you from getting it, he is not likely to capitulate just because you punch him harder. The Iranian regime doesn't give a shit what violence America brings. The more pain America inflicts, the less likely they are to give an inch on anything. They welcome martyrdom.

 

[Shadowy Man]

They don’t even need a nuclear bomb, we just gave them a weapon more powerful.

 

[bilby]

They don’t even need a nuclear bomb, we just gave them a weapon more powerful.

To be fair, they always had it; You were just not dumb enough to provoke them into using it before.

Every US President since 1953 has been asked by Israel to attack Iran, and every one up to now has been wise enough to say no.

Because anyone with an ounce (28.35g) of sense knew what would happen if they did.

 

[Toni]

We cannot compete with younger, more ambitious nations on questions of industrial production.

Youth and ambition have nothing to do with it.

The US (and the rest of the developed world) cannot compete with nations whose workforce will accept lower pay and harsher working conditions than workers in developed nations will tolerate.

The US partially offsets this by importing workers from Latin America, and refusing them the few labour rights and protections that US citizens have.

Which is the less smart of the two possible solutions. You can either lower your own standards until you are competitive; Or you can make the developing world's workers wealthy enough to become less competitive.

This is already happening; China is looking to Africa for cheap labour, just as the US looks to China.

Eventually the world will run short of poor people, and we will have to get machines to do the drudge labour.

We can do exactly that. The fact is that as any group of people start to realize that there are better, easier an da less dangerous ways of doing things: that’s what they want.

Do they? Generally I see them not wanting that, because it will put them out of work.

If a machine is invented that can do my job for me, suddenly I am no longer allowed to eat.

The only way to ‘solve’ that is to create a permanent underclass of nearly enslaved workers and hope that you can oppress them enough that they will be too tired to revolt. At least until after you die.

Indeed. But that hope seems assured, as long as the underclass are in the position that they must either work or starve.

Sure, there is resistance to change. But I have never known a farmer who wishes that we’d go back to scything wheat or plowing with a horse or ox —if you could get one.

People who have lost their jobs because of progress generally find different work. Sure, there’s sometimes nostalgia for old ways and plenty of songs and folktales about when men were men and drove 16 tons and John Henry and all of that. No idea what your legends are about working hard until you die, but those are the ones I grew up with. I don’t think my kids have heard of them.

More people live longer and healthier because of improvements in not just medical care and medication but because life is safer when workplaces are safer and bodies do not wear out when work doesn’t grind you to a stop at age 50.

I can sew by hand but a machine is faster, and usually straighter and my hands don’t cramp. I can beat egg whites by hand to make meringues but an electric hand mixer is faster and that’s beaten by a mile by my stand mixer. I admit I’m hoping that safe, reliable autonomous motor vehicles are available by the time I have to hang up my keys, since ‘improvements by billionaires’ have gutted taxi services to basically asking uncredentialed strangers to drive you to your doctor’s appointments.

Not all modern inventions and labor savings devices are improvements.

The lab where I worked went from majority of tests being performed using manual platforms to 100% of the tests being performed by automated platforms in well under 20 years and the number of samples tested/day increased four-fold and the number of lab personnel increased significantly.

The younger generations are also demonstrating that they value what is personalized and made ‘the old way’ with originality, not mass produced. Craft beer is one such industry.

Since no one is having babies anymore, I think the next generations will still find work.

 

[ZiprHead]

Press: Do you have a backup plan in case they don't open the strait?

Trump: We don't need a backup plan.

He is such an idiot.

 

[ZiprHead]

Jethro Dull Vance headed to Pakistan to participate in negotiations with Iran.

Be still my beating heart.

 

[crazyfingers]

Jethro Dull Vance headed to Pakistan to participate in negotiations with Iran.

Be still my beating heart.

Vance is a skilled diplomat. Just like the other two. Combined 100 years, 2 weeks, experience.