World War III Countdown

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

Cyber war, war through proxies, alliances and instability, massive economic blockades; wars on multiple fronts: Africa, Middle East, Europe. Involvement of two major powers. What is left?

IMO, I think if China sees the US as weakened by Trump using too many resources, this could trigger an attack on Taiwan. The US might then get involved and have to switch to a drastic-WWII-like economy. We would then have war on so many fronts by the major players that it could qualify as WWIII.

What is your opinion on how close we are to WWIII? And what could bring us there?

 

[Elixir]

What is your opinion on how close we are to WWIII?

My best guess about WWIII is that it will be over by the time we hear about it. I can only hope that by that time, we will have “won”.

 

[ideologyhunter]

Nothing is a sure bet with this much upheaval. But I believe in one constant: after the first few nuclear exchanges, Lindsey Graham will make an appearance, even if he's standing at the mic in shredded underwear with burn marks:

'I apologize for appearing before you with my tummy showing. But I want to assure the American people that Donald Trump still lives. He is deep underground, with his military staff and his Bible. And the First Lady is there, and several of the President's children. (Question from media scrum) No, Eric did not survive. The President asked him to remain behind at the White House and collect the gold trimming off the walls, and as you all know, the White House and the beautiful Donald J. Trump Ballroom is...is..(He weeps for 7 seconds) So, that is how that story ended. (Question from media) Yes, the President knew it was imitation gold scrolling. But it was historic.
'We are getting off topic here. I have never been more proud of my President. My money is always on Donald Trump. He is the Abraham Lincoln of today. He is the General Patton of today. He is Paul Bunyan and Billy Graham, too. And the President needs our help. I am asking you to send in whatever money you can. If it is only fifty dollars, send it. If it is even twenty-five dollars, send it. I am authorized to tell you that if you can send one thousand dollars to help make the world great again, you will be sent an End Times Bible, just as soon as we can print them. Your Bible will contain the Book of Revelation printed in imitation lamb's blood, yes, bright red. It will contain the hand-written lyrics to I Wish We'd All Been Ready by Larry Norman of Christian rock.
'At the end of the day, I blame this war on Nancy Pelosi and Whoopi Goldberg and all the liberals who fought the President and didn't want the country to be great. You hate America, and I hate you. You hate Donald Trump, and I hate you. (handed a paper from media scrum) I have just been handed -- oh, good Lord, listen to this: "If you want to make America great again, tell Donald Trump to go to hell." I'm guessing Nancy Pelosi said this. It couldn't be Joe Biden, he's too dumb to talk anymore. Was this Nancy Pelosi? She should be arrested...(shout from media) I SAID THIS??? Okay, go to hell yourself. This is fake news. I come out here with my underwear literally on fire, and all you can...you just go to hell. You go to hell now. Goodness gracious. America, you need to take back your country from these people and rebuild with Trump. That's all I have to say. Except go to hell.'

 

[Politesse]

The only salvation we have here is that China (as far as we know) is an expansionist state only insofar as they perceive certain places to already be "China". This is bad, and could drag us into war - "Israel" practices this same philosophy and we fell for it like genocidal morons - but I can't see them joining a World Alliance For Evil, and the US is diplomatically neutered by our own bad decisions.

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

The only salvation we have here is that China (as far as we know) is an expansionist state only insofar as they perceive certain places to already be "China". This is bad, and could drag us into war -

The War of SemiConductors.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Cyber war, war through proxies, alliances and instability, massive economic blockades; wars on multiple fronts: Africa, Middle East, Europe. Involvement of two major powers. What is left?

IMO, I think if China sees the US as weakened by Trump using too many resources, this could trigger an attack on Taiwan. The US might then get involved and have to switch to a drastic-WWII-like economy. We would then have war on so many fronts by the major players that it could qualify as WWIII.

What is your opinion on how close we are to WWIII? And what could bring us there?

The only good news lately is that I'm actually more optimistic that Chinese invasion of Taiwan is less likely. Ukraine is holding off Russia. Tiny incompetent Iran with an obliterated military (according to Trump) is controlling the most valuable real estate in the world right now. Iran controlling the strait has doubled the cost of oil befuddling the greatest military in history. Hopefully China is learning the lesson that defending an area is much easier today due to drones and light mobile missiles that sink ships at very small cost. Iran and Ukraine are doing this on land. China would have to take Taiwan by the sea. And Taiwan has been preparing this for many years....

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

China would rather merge with Taiwan than take it over militarily. China is so old, they make Europe look like the United States maturity wise. Plenty of history of warring between the mainland and islands. It has never been easy. And the cost of damaging Taiwan wouldn't make the effort worth it. WWIII, if Trump is involved, will be a massive oversight/fuck up/testosterone driven dumbass decision.

 

[Harry Bosch]

China would rather merge with Taiwan than take it over militarily. China is so old, they make Europe look like the United States maturity wise. Plenty of history of warring between the mainland and islands. It has never been easy. And the cost of damaging Taiwan wouldn't make the effort worth it. WWIII, if Trump is involved, will be a massive oversight/fuck up/testosterone driven dumbass decision.

Agreed. Trump makes Bush junior seem like a foreign policy genius.

 

[bilby]

after the first few nuclear exchanges

This ain't your grandpappy's WWIII.

The first two WWs were fought without nukes*, and the third could easily be too.

Our view of WWIII is thirty years out of date; It won't be the WW we dodged during the Cold War, when at any moment a bit of a scuffle somewhere between CCCP and USofA could have triggered the SIOP**.

Today we live in a paradoxically more dangerous world, because people like Trump and Putin feel that they can get away with a lot of shit, without triggering full on MAD.

After his recent comments about NATO, does anyone really think thaf Trump would go to war against his buddy in the Kremlin to defend Estonia (for example), Article 5 or not?

Does Putin fear a massive US response, possibly even a nuclear response? Or does he think that POTUS will shrug and say "I prefer countries that don't get themselves invaded. Those losers will get no help from me."?

A few years ago, the question would have been thought absurd. NATO guaranteed that US involvement (along with her nuclear arsenal, as, at the very least, a highly credible threat) was an iron-clad certainty if any NATO member were attacked. Today, if a NATO member gets attacked, the USA might be the aggressor - just ask Greenland.









* Well, mostly. By the time nukes were used, it wasn't a WW anymore, it was just the fag-end of the W between Japan and the USA.

** Rather like the situation in 1914, by the middle of the Cold War, both sides had developed plans so complex and integrated that the only options were "do nothing" and "do everything". If Moscow had lobbed a single nuke at any US ally, the only possible response was SIOP - the Single Integrated Operational Plan, which entailed hitting every target in the Warsaw Pact with several nukes each, in an incredibly detailed series of strikes designed to shut down the Soviet defences, and close their airspace to the Soviet Airforce, while leaving carefully planned gaps for B52s to cruise through without getting nuked or too badly irradiated by US ICBM or SLBM 'friendly fire'. Just as the Kaiser couldn't mobilise just a bit of his army to face off against Serbia (and maybe Russia), but instead had no options other than "do nothing" and "attack France", so the SIOP meant that POTUS could only choose between "do nothing" and "global thermonuclear war". A nice game of Chess was not an option.

 

[GenesisNemesis]

If we give AI access to nuclear weapons, that could be a problem. People are probably careless enough to do that.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

If we give AI access to nuclear weapons, that could be a problem. People are probably careless enough to do that.

AI isn't remotely up to that point yet.

DoD: Iran has deployed mines into the Strait of Hormuz, should we nuke Iran?
DoD AI: Yes. We should definitely launch nuclear weapons.
DoD: Did you weigh the benefits and costs of doing so?
DoD AI: You are right, I should weigh the benefits and costs of doing so.
DoD AI: No, we shouldn't have launched nukes at Iran.
DoD: Wait... what do you mean shouldn't have?

 

[GenesisNemesis]

If we give AI access to nuclear weapons, that could be a problem. People are probably careless enough to do that.

AI isn't remotely up to that point yet.

DoD: Iran has deployed mines into the Strait of Hormuz, should we nuke Iran?
DoD AI: Yes. We should definitely launch nuclear weapons.
DoD: Did you weigh the benefits and costs of doing so?
DoD AI: You are right, I should weigh the benefits and costs of doing so.
DoD AI: No, we shouldn't have launched nukes at Iran.
DoD: Wait... what do you mean shouldn't have?

It is at the point where careless people are using it anyway and Iranian schoolgirls end up being bombed.

 

[GenesisNemesis]

I guess I'm more concerned about a scenario where an AI hallucinates an incoming nuclear threat, rather than it having access to nukes.

 

[TomC]

I haven't seen it in years. But back in the late 1900's I saw an optimistic political cartoon.

It depicted Earth from space. Missiles were shooting out from all sides.
Across the top it read "When computers rule the world"
Across the bottom (in that quaint old type that indicated computer) it said "What do you even have these things for? I'm shooting them all into the sun!"
Tom

 

[Ruth Harris]

...I think if China sees the US as weakened by Trump using too many resources, this could trigger an attack on Taiwan. The US might then get involved...

This is a big maybe. I personally don't think that the US would come to Taiwan's aid since it would require consent by both the legislature and the president as there is no current mutual aid treaty.

I also think that China would not physically attack Taiwan as they want its resources. China plays a long game; I think it is more likely that they would infiltrate Taiwan with true believers and paid infiltrators to enable a bloodless coup.

As for how close we are to WWIII - who knows? Things can change in a heartbeat.

Ruth

 

[Gospel]

Taiwan is probably playing it safer these days, leaning more into economic and diplomatic engagement with Beijing, because the U.S. now comes across as an unreliable ally thanks to the dumbass the other dumbasses voted into office.

 

[Shadowy Man]

...I think if China sees the US as weakened by Trump using too many resources, this could trigger an attack on Taiwan. The US might then get involved...

This is a big maybe. I personally don't think that the US would come to Taiwan's aid since it would require consent by both the legislature and the president as there is no current mutual aid treaty.

Even if there were a treaty, it wouldn’t necessarily be honored.

 

[Elixir]

...I think if China sees the US as weakened by Trump using too many resources, this could trigger an attack on Taiwan. The US might then get involved...

This is a big maybe. I personally don't think that the US would come to Taiwan's aid since it would require consent by both the legislature and the president as there is no current mutual aid treaty.

Even if there were a treaty, it wouldn’t necessarily be honored.

And it certainly would not require any more congressional approval than Trump’s Not Epstein war in Iran.

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

I'm not sure I agree with everything in this article, but it is an interesting and relevant read about Trump and WWIII:

Stumbling Along in Hitler's Footsteps

World War II, at least in Europe, can be blamed on a single man — a dictator who gained absolute power because of the fecklessness of democratically

www.counterpunch.org