War with Venezuela

[Axulus]

The war no one asked for with Venezuela is about to begin.

U.S. poised to strike military targets in Venezuela in escalation against Maduro regime

The Trump Administration has made the decision to attack military installations inside Venezuela and the strikes could come at any moment, sources with knowledge of the situation told the Miami Herald

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/venezuela/article312722642.html

How will Venezuela respond?

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

Wow, he's trying really hard to get that lady to hand over her Nobel peace prize to him.

 

[TomC]

Wow, he's trying really hard to get that lady to hand over her Nobel peace prize to him.

There's an interesting situation.

Trump launches a military attack, complete with jets and missiles and Navy ships. He eliminates the government in power sufficiently to allow his friend, who has a Nobel Peace Prize, to assume power. She rewards Trump with the Nobel Peace Prize he desperately wants and she has.

Is it still a Peace Prize when it's the spoils of war?
Tom

 

[Elixir]

The war no one asked for with Venezuela is about to begin.

It began months ago.
As I posted back in early September when this play was becoming obvious:

Venezuela has oil. Trump see, Trump want.
Period. War is coming.

 

[laughing dog]

Trump is trying to boost his approval ratings to avoid a midterm election disaster. Expect more such nonsense.

 

[Toni]

Trump is trying to boost his approval ratings to avoid a midterm election disaster. Expect more such nonsense.

More like: fear mongering. We have a long history of keeping the same guy in power if there is a war.

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

Wow, he's trying really hard to get that lady to hand over her Nobel peace prize to him.

There's an interesting situation.

Trump launches a military attack, complete with jets and missiles and Navy ships. He eliminates the government in power sufficiently to allow his friend, who has a Nobel Peace Prize, to assume power. She rewards Trump with the Nobel Peace Prize he desperately wants and she has.

Is it still a Peace Prize when it's the spoils of war?
Tom

The real question is what will happen when he looks at the back of the prize? It's basically like a giant gold coin and the image on the back of it is 3 naked guys hugging. Personally, I think he will just melt the whole thing down and then recast it with his face on the front and 3 naked women on the back. He'll call it the Trump Nobel Peace Prize, even though he removes the image of Nobel from the front. Then, what next? I don't know precisely, but probably he'll incorporate it into the Epstein ballroom. A coin on a scepter next to his throne? Maybe?

I apologize to the op author. I know I jumped forward a few steps here. In my defense, I am only half-joking. There is always a possibility this will come true.

So, let me go back to the central issue. I don't think Venezuela can respond to the US aggression outside Venezuelan territory. Too impractical. Next, if their military is hit hard, then it will be difficult for their military to respond even inside their own territory. Their organized effort will suffer. Let's start with that. The U.S. has overwhelming air and naval superiority, which would quickly degrade the operational capacity of the Venezuelan military (FANB) in an organized, protracted conflict, limiting them to localized, asymmetric resistance. This means that in any particular locality, a small resistance force aided by U.S. air support could be effective in quickly taking key administrative locations.

Next, note that several days/a week ago or more (Oct 15th), Trump told everyone that there was a CIA presence inside Venezuela ready to do covert actions. This was extremely unusual for a President to admit publicly that the CIA was presently doing covert operations and to name the location. Because of this, it was initially interpreted as a means of pressure on Maduro. However, the announcement also serves a strong internal signaling purpose. If Trump had not admitted it, any subsequent events (like a coup) could have been dismissed by the regime as a conspiracy theory. His admission, instead, is heard worldwide, including by Venezuela's military leaders, some of whom could decide to switch sides because of the likely US victory, or at least due to the credible threat of being directly targeted by this confirmed operation.

Given Trump's history with coups and his relationship with the rival opposition leader, there is a big potential for CIA operatives to aid a small band of forces right to the Presidency using air support after the military is hit hard. It's also possible that Trump will tell Maduro to step down explicitly, and the military buildup is the final pressure to have him do it. Or, it could be settled economically—by giving US oligarchs large ownership of Citgo and a dominant stake in Venezuela's vast oil resources.

I do think that oil is the ultimate goal and it isn't merely for the oligarchy. It's also specifically because Trump wants to use the oil to offset current economic energy troubles due to the Russia-Ukraine war that he had said would be solved on Day One. He now knows that it is a much longer war and his ability to utilize it to improve the US economic situation is a long way off, so he is looking for vulnerable prey to offset his losses. Controlling Venezuelan oil also has significant geopolitical impacts—mainly it lessens the power of China and especially Russia, whom Trump only recently realized he must take on.

Whether we end up with a full-blown war is going to depend upon the Venezuelan response, which largely means how the immediate transition or coup is handled. Will Maduro step down, will the military revolt? If not, then key military targets will be bombed. Next, there will be small local fighting at administrative locations to seize the government. Will key military factions revolt? If so, it is all over quickly. If not, the war will only be slightly lengthened. Two separate Venezuelan governments is out of the question for any significant length of time. Maduro would be bombed and killed. There is no good military defense and no superpower (like Russia or China) is in a position to aid Venezuela against superior US power.

 

[Elixir]

it could be settled economically—by giving US oligarchs large ownership of Citgo and a dominant stake in Venezuela's vast oil resources.

^THAT.
Trump’s intellect may be minuscule, and his moral compass entirely absent, but his greed is boundless.

 

[Toni]

Wow, he's trying really hard to get that lady to hand over her Nobel peace prize to him.

There's an interesting situation.

Trump launches a military attack, complete with jets and missiles and Navy ships. He eliminates the government in power sufficiently to allow his friend, who has a Nobel Peace Prize, to assume power. She rewards Trump with the Nobel Peace Prize he desperately wants and she has.

Is it still a Peace Prize when it's the spoils of war?
Tom

The real question is what will happen when he looks at the back of the prize? It's basically like a giant gold coin and the image on the back of it is 3 naked guys hugging. Personally, I think he will just melt the whole thing down and then recast it with his face on the front and 3 naked women on the back. He'll call it the Trump Nobel Peace Prize, even though he removes the image of Nobel from the front. Then, what next? I don't know precisely, but probably he'll incorporate it into the Epstein ballroom. A coin on a scepter next to his throne? Maybe?

I apologize to the op author. I know I jumped forward a few steps here. In my defense, I am only half-joking. There is always a possibility this will come true.

So, let me go back to the central issue. I don't think Venezuela can respond to the US aggression outside Venezuelan territory. Too impractical. Next, if their military is hit hard, then it will be difficult for their military to respond even inside their own territory. Their organized effort will suffer. Let's start with that. The U.S. has overwhelming air and naval superiority, which would quickly degrade the operational capacity of the Venezuelan military (FANB) in an organized, protracted conflict, limiting them to localized, asymmetric resistance. This means that in any particular locality, a small resistance force aided by U.S. air support could be effective in quickly taking key administrative locations.

Next, note that several days/a week ago or more (Oct 15th), Trump told everyone that there was a CIA presence inside Venezuela ready to do covert actions. This was extremely unusual for a President to admit publicly that the CIA was presently doing covert operations and to name the location. Because of this, it was initially interpreted as a means of pressure on Maduro. However, the announcement also serves a strong internal signaling purpose. If Trump had not admitted it, any subsequent events (like a coup) could have been dismissed by the regime as a conspiracy theory. His admission, instead, is heard worldwide, including by Venezuela's military leaders, some of whom could decide to switch sides because of the likely US victory, or at least due to the credible threat of being directly targeted by this confirmed operation.

Given Trump's history with coups and his relationship with the rival opposition leader, there is a big potential for CIA operatives to aid a small band of forces right to the Presidency using air support after the military is hit hard. It's also possible that Trump will tell Maduro to step down explicitly, and the military buildup is the final pressure to have him do it. Or, it could be settled economically—by giving US oligarchs large ownership of Citgo and a dominant stake in Venezuela's vast oil resources.

I do think that oil is the ultimate goal and it isn't merely for the oligarchy. It's also specifically because Trump wants to use the oil to offset current economic energy troubles due to the Russia-Ukraine war that he had said would be solved on Day One. He now knows that it is a much longer war and his ability to utilize it to improve the US economic situation is a long way off, so he is looking for vulnerable prey to offset his losses. Controlling Venezuelan oil also has significant geopolitical impacts—mainly it lessens the power of China and especially Russia, whom Trump only recently realized he must take on.

Whether we end up with a full-blown war is going to depend upon the Venezuelan response, which largely means how the immediate transition or coup is handled. Will Maduro step down, will the military revolt? If not, then key military targets will be bombed. Next, there will be small local fighting at administrative locations to seize the government. Will key military factions revolt? If so, it is all over quickly. If not, the war will only be slightly lengthened. Two separate Venezuelan governments is out of the question for any significant length of time. Maduro would be bombed and killed. There is no good military defense and no superpower (like Russia or China) is in a position to aid Venezuela against superior US power.

I’m pretty sure he’ll get around to issuing his own Trump award. Plated, of course. Not 14k.

 

[pood]

What’s really important here — apart from the most important point that his monster will cause horrific death and suffering for no reason — is that these strikes, should they occur, would be utterly unconstitutional.

But the MAGGOTs are in charge of everything and the constitution is void.

It’s funny how I recall a lot of MAGGOTS saying they were supporting Trump because he wouldn’t start wars,

 

[Elixir]

It’s funny how I recall a lot of MAGGOTS saying they were supporting Trump because he wouldn’t start wars,

That, and he’s good for the economy.
Grifters and fools = GOP.

 

[RVonse]

I do think that oil is the ultimate goal and it isn't merely for the oligarchy.

The article provided by the OP claims this is all about drug cartels yet you and many others here have blamed the motive for just about everything else including the nobel prize. I did not see anything in the article mentioning war for oil production.

For what it is worth, I happen to also believe a war for drugs is even more outrageous than starting a war for oil. Especially considering how low gasoline is priced today (inflation adjusted). But at least a war for oil makes some intelligent sense because oil is valuable.

Yet here I am, always being accused of wearing the tin foil hat. For once, I believe his motives are what our political elite says they are. Because if Trump is not concerned about drugs at all, how come about every other tariff Trump imposes is predicated on whether Mexico or China reduces fentaynl?

For the record, if Trump wants to fix America's drug problem he should fix it at home and leave the rest of the world alone IMO.

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

I do think that oil is the ultimate goal and it isn't merely for the oligarchy.

The article provided by the OP claims this is all about drug cartels yet you and many others here ... ....

FULL STOP. Dude, that isn't how news articles work.

News articles don't make claims about motivations of people generally as they make objective claims. So they write things like so-and-so said. Stating so-and-so said something is not the same thing as the news article stating that something is true.

We all already know that Trump has been claiming things about drug cartels. No one is stating that Trump is claiming something different.

We also know he propagandizes everything and is a big fat liar. So his word means nothing.

ETA: The primary opposition both within and outside Venezuela has been about how the govt had nationalized the oil industry. That's their political debate. And it's been ours. When Maduro is toppled, it isn't the drug cartels that are at issue, but the economy and how it will work with the oil and potential foreign owners.

 

[RVonse]

I do think that oil is the ultimate goal and it isn't merely for the oligarchy.

The article provided by the OP claims this is all about drug cartels yet you and many others here ... ....

FULL STOP. Dude, that isn't how news articles work.

News articles don't make claims about motivations of people generally as they make objective claims. So they write things like so-and-so said. Stating so-and-so said something is not the same thing as the news article stating that something is true.

We all already know that Trump has been claiming things about drug cartels. No one is stating that Trump is claiming something different.

We also know he propagandizes everything and is a big fat liar. So his word means nothing.

Ok the article is saying what Trump and others are saying then. And maybe all of our elites lying to us just as usual. That still means that no one in the article or otherwise is saying anything about a nobel prize or a motive for war to get oil. The interested observer can either believe the print being told or you can make up your own story what you guess is your reality.

But if you do make up your own reality it needs to be called a conspiracy theory even if it agrees with liberal ideology instead of conservative ideology. Your conspiracy theory is still a conspiracy theory until you can prove yours is reality.

 

[ZiprHead]

Trump is trying to boost his approval ratings to avoid a midterm election disaster. Expect more such nonsense.

More like: fear mongering. We have a long history of keeping the same guy in power if there is a war.

If we're at war it will be an excuse to cancel elections.

 

[Elixir]

If we're at war it will be an excuse to cancel elections.

Yup. All he has to do is convince his credulous idiots that it isn’t a gimmick to stay in power. If history is any guide, that will be easy.

 

[Toni]

If we're at war it will be an excuse to cancel elections.

Yup. All he has to do is convince his credulous idiots that it isn’t a gimmick to stay in power. If history is any guide, that will be easy.

Please: everyone knows it’s a gimmick. But they believe their power is tied to Trump’s coattails—which means it’s tied to Trump’s coattails.

 

[Elixir]

So they write things like so-and-so said. Stating so-and-so said something is not the same thing as the news article stating that something is true.

Unless “you know who” is the so-and-so, and you’re in a RW bubble.

 

[Elixir]

If we're at war it will be an excuse to cancel elections.

Yup. All he has to do is convince his credulous idiots that it isn’t a gimmick to stay in power. If history is any guide, that will be easy.

Please: everyone knows it’s a gimmick. But they believe their power is tied to Trump’s coattails—which means it’s tied to Trump’s coattails.

“They” are the politicians. The voters are the idjits. They think Trump is just aok.

 

[Toni]

If we're at war it will be an excuse to cancel elections.

Yup. All he has to do is convince his credulous idiots that it isn’t a gimmick to stay in power. If history is any guide, that will be easy.

Please: everyone knows it’s a gimmick. But they believe their power is tied to Trump’s coattails—which means it’s tied to Trump’s coattails.

“They” are the politicians. The voters are the idjits. They think Trump is just aok.

Yep