Venezuela - Chronicles in Socialist Success Stories!

[Sphincterboy]

The government does not have total control because it is a mixed economy not an entirely Socialist economy.

You have one part of the economy trying to make things as bad as possible by creating artificial shortages.

It is a difficult situation to deal with.

These paranoias about an oligarchical boogeyman always messing things up when bad policies inevitably lead to bad outcomes are exactly the kind of rationales used for totalitarian crackdowns on political opponents, which led to many a crime against humanity in communist regimes.

Why come up with paranoid conspiracy theories when basic economics 101 adequately explains what is happening? Venezuelan policy has put price ceilings on products and price ceilings on currency conversions. As predictable as the sun rises, this has lead to severe shortages.

Conspiracy theory? There is established precedent for exactly this kind of economic destabilization. Kissinger's "Make the economy scream"

 

[Sphincterboy]

Then why the attacks? If the Socialist experiment is doomed to fail anyway, why not let it fail on it's own merits? This is analogous to the situation in Chile in the early 70's with the famous quote "Make the economy scream". The "strife" being referred to here is the petulance of one sector of the population reacting to being forced to play on the same level as everyone else.

The attacks are coming from those whose wealth is being confiscated or those whose business is being driven to bankruptcy with the change in policies.

And note most of the "attacks" are political attacks coming from the political opposition, which Chavez and now Madero have no qualms about crushing and throwing in jail on dubious charges and kangaroo courts.

Other so called purposeful shortages are really just businesses that have given up and stopped producing product because they realize that they will be driven to bankruptcy or will soon be due to the government policies. untermenche considers such actions a vicious attack by the oligarchy.

From  Media_of_Venezuela

Post-1998[edit]
After the 1998 election of Hugo Chavez, the Venezuelan press "failed miserably in their duty to provide information that their fellow citizens needed to navigate the storms of Venezuelan politics under Chavez. Instead, media owners and their editors used the news - print and broadcast - to spearhead an opposition movement against Chavez."[8] The programme of Bolivarian Missions was (until 2005) "virtually invisible in the mainstream press".[8] Encouraged by verbal attacks by Chavez and other officials, editors "began routinely winking at copy containing unfounded speculation, rumor, and unchecked facts."[8] This contributed to a polarization such that for a time reporters were regularly attacked in the street by Chavez supporters with bottles and sticks.[dubious – discuss][8] According to a political reporter for El Nacional speaking in 2005, "the common attitude has been that we can leave aside ethics and the rules of journalism".[8] Alonso Moleiro said that "Reporters bought the argument that you have to put journalistic standards aside, that if we don't get rid of Chavez, we will have communism and Fidelismo."[8] The head of the Institute for Press and Society in Venezuela said that "here you had the convergence in the media of two things: grave journalistic errors - to the extreme of silencing information on the most important news events - and taking political positions to the extreme of advocating a nondemocratic, insurrectional path."[8] After the 2002 Venezuelan coup d'état attempt, in which the media played a significant role, there was a change in editorial policy of the major newspapers, with a wider mix of opposition, pro-Chavez and independent commentators. The generally non-partisan Últimas Noticias gained circulation at the expense of El Nacional and El Universal, which remained more associated with the opposition. Television networks also moderated their tone, with several of the opposition talk shows with the most extreme rhetoric, including talk of violence against Chavez and his followers, taken off the air.[8]

The attacks came long before anyone was 'driven into bankruptcy'.

 

[Axulus]

These paranoias about an oligarchical boogeyman always messing things up when bad policies inevitably lead to bad outcomes are exactly the kind of rationales used for totalitarian crackdowns on political opponents, which led to many a crime against humanity in communist regimes.

Why come up with paranoid conspiracy theories when basic economics 101 adequately explains what is happening? Venezuelan policy has put price ceilings on products and price ceilings on currency conversions. As predictable as the sun rises, this has lead to severe shortages.

Conspiracy theory? There is established precedent for exactly this kind of economic destabilization. Kissinger's "Make the economy scream"

Because destabilization has happened before doesn't mean it is responsible for every economic recession that occurs in any anti-capitalist country. That's faulty logic. Especially when the policies themselves adequately explain what is happening quite well. Occams Razor and all that. We had cold war politics going on back then that led to some pretty extreme actions. Venezuela is irrelevant to the United States today.

 

[Sphincterboy]

Conspiracy theory? There is established precedent for exactly this kind of economic destabilization. Kissinger's "Make the economy scream"

Because destabilization has happened before doesn't mean it happens every time. We had cold war politics going on that led to some pretty extreme actions. Venezuela is irrelevant to the United States today.

Except that it did happen with Venezuela already:  2002_Venezuelan_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat_attempt

 

[Axulus]

The attacks are coming from those whose wealth is being confiscated or those whose business is being driven to bankruptcy with the change in policies.

And note most of the "attacks" are political attacks coming from the political opposition, which Chavez and now Madero have no qualms about crushing and throwing in jail on dubious charges and kangaroo courts.

Other so called purposeful shortages are really just businesses that have given up and stopped producing product because they realize that they will be driven to bankruptcy or will soon be due to the government policies. untermenche considers such actions a vicious attack by the oligarchy.

From  Media_of_Venezuela

Post-1998[edit]
After the 1998 election of Hugo Chavez, the Venezuelan press "failed miserably in their duty to provide information that their fellow citizens needed to navigate the storms of Venezuelan politics under Chavez. Instead, media owners and their editors used the news - print and broadcast - to spearhead an opposition movement against Chavez."[8] The programme of Bolivarian Missions was (until 2005) "virtually invisible in the mainstream press".[8] Encouraged by verbal attacks by Chavez and other officials, editors "began routinely winking at copy containing unfounded speculation, rumor, and unchecked facts."[8] This contributed to a polarization such that for a time reporters were regularly attacked in the street by Chavez supporters with bottles and sticks.[dubious – discuss][8] According to a political reporter for El Nacional speaking in 2005, "the common attitude has been that we can leave aside ethics and the rules of journalism".[8] Alonso Moleiro said that "Reporters bought the argument that you have to put journalistic standards aside, that if we don't get rid of Chavez, we will have communism and Fidelismo."[8] The head of the Institute for Press and Society in Venezuela said that "here you had the convergence in the media of two things: grave journalistic errors - to the extreme of silencing information on the most important news events - and taking political positions to the extreme of advocating a nondemocratic, insurrectional path."[8] After the 2002 Venezuelan coup d'état attempt, in which the media played a significant role, there was a change in editorial policy of the major newspapers, with a wider mix of opposition, pro-Chavez and independent commentators. The generally non-partisan Últimas Noticias gained circulation at the expense of El Nacional and El Universal, which remained more associated with the opposition. Television networks also moderated their tone, with several of the opposition talk shows with the most extreme rhetoric, including talk of violence against Chavez and his followers, taken off the air.[8]

The attacks came long before anyone was 'driven into bankruptcy'.

Not sure what media misinformation in '98 and '02 has to do with causing product shortages and long lines and potential economic chaos in '15.

 

[Sphincterboy]

From  Media_of_Venezuela

Post-1998[edit]
After the 1998 election of Hugo Chavez, the Venezuelan press "failed miserably in their duty to provide information that their fellow citizens needed to navigate the storms of Venezuelan politics under Chavez. Instead, media owners and their editors used the news - print and broadcast - to spearhead an opposition movement against Chavez."[8] The programme of Bolivarian Missions was (until 2005) "virtually invisible in the mainstream press".[8] Encouraged by verbal attacks by Chavez and other officials, editors "began routinely winking at copy containing unfounded speculation, rumor, and unchecked facts."[8] This contributed to a polarization such that for a time reporters were regularly attacked in the street by Chavez supporters with bottles and sticks.[dubious – discuss][8] According to a political reporter for El Nacional speaking in 2005, "the common attitude has been that we can leave aside ethics and the rules of journalism".[8] Alonso Moleiro said that "Reporters bought the argument that you have to put journalistic standards aside, that if we don't get rid of Chavez, we will have communism and Fidelismo."[8] The head of the Institute for Press and Society in Venezuela said that "here you had the convergence in the media of two things: grave journalistic errors - to the extreme of silencing information on the most important news events - and taking political positions to the extreme of advocating a nondemocratic, insurrectional path."[8] After the 2002 Venezuelan coup d'état attempt, in which the media played a significant role, there was a change in editorial policy of the major newspapers, with a wider mix of opposition, pro-Chavez and independent commentators. The generally non-partisan Últimas Noticias gained circulation at the expense of El Nacional and El Universal, which remained more associated with the opposition. Television networks also moderated their tone, with several of the opposition talk shows with the most extreme rhetoric, including talk of violence against Chavez and his followers, taken off the air.[8]

The attacks came long before anyone was 'driven into bankruptcy'.

Not sure what media misinformation in '98 and '02 has to do with causing product shortages and long lines and potential economic chaos in '15.

It establishes a pattern.

 

[Axulus]

Because destabilization has happened before doesn't mean it happens every time. We had cold war politics going on that led to some pretty extreme actions. Venezuela is irrelevant to the United States today.

Except that it did happen with Venezuela already:  2002_Venezuelan_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat_attempt

A coup attempt from 13 years ago is poor evidence of economic sabotage happening in recent years.

- - - Updated - - -

From  Media_of_Venezuela

Post-1998[edit]
After the 1998 election of Hugo Chavez, the Venezuelan press "failed miserably in their duty to provide information that their fellow citizens needed to navigate the storms of Venezuelan politics under Chavez. Instead, media owners and their editors used the news - print and broadcast - to spearhead an opposition movement against Chavez."[8] The programme of Bolivarian Missions was (until 2005) "virtually invisible in the mainstream press".[8] Encouraged by verbal attacks by Chavez and other officials, editors "began routinely winking at copy containing unfounded speculation, rumor, and unchecked facts."[8] This contributed to a polarization such that for a time reporters were regularly attacked in the street by Chavez supporters with bottles and sticks.[dubious – discuss][8] According to a political reporter for El Nacional speaking in 2005, "the common attitude has been that we can leave aside ethics and the rules of journalism".[8] Alonso Moleiro said that "Reporters bought the argument that you have to put journalistic standards aside, that if we don't get rid of Chavez, we will have communism and Fidelismo."[8] The head of the Institute for Press and Society in Venezuela said that "here you had the convergence in the media of two things: grave journalistic errors - to the extreme of silencing information on the most important news events - and taking political positions to the extreme of advocating a nondemocratic, insurrectional path."[8] After the 2002 Venezuelan coup d'état attempt, in which the media played a significant role, there was a change in editorial policy of the major newspapers, with a wider mix of opposition, pro-Chavez and independent commentators. The generally non-partisan Últimas Noticias gained circulation at the expense of El Nacional and El Universal, which remained more associated with the opposition. Television networks also moderated their tone, with several of the opposition talk shows with the most extreme rhetoric, including talk of violence against Chavez and his followers, taken off the air.[8]

The attacks came long before anyone was 'driven into bankruptcy'.

Not sure what media misinformation in '98 and '02 has to do with causing product shortages and long lines and potential economic chaos in '15.

It establishes a pattern.

But there still needs to be good evidence of any current accusations, especially when the really stupid policies themselves adequately explain all the facts we see in regards to the current state of the Venezuelan economy. They were advised years ago to end the currency peg that was damaging their economy and leading their currency to be massively overvalued and contributing to massive import shortages. They were also advised to diversify their economy and not be so reliant on petroleum for exports and government revenue. Did they listen?

 

[Sphincterboy]

But there still needs to be good evidence of any current accusations, especially when the really stupid policies themselves adequately explain all the facts we see in regards to the current state of the Venezuelan economy. They were advised years ago to end the currency peg that was damaging their economy and leading their currency to be massively overvalued and contributing to massive import shortages. They were also advised to diversify their economy and not be so reliant on petroleum for exports and government revenue. Did they listen?

Fair enough. But nevertheless the pattern is pretty clear. And it still begs the question of why the need for external destabilization and collusion with internal forces hostile to the 'socialist' program. There is a well documented history of the US fucking with the economies of countries that are attempting an alternate development path. Makes one think that the faith in the neo-liberal economic 'advice' is not so strong if they are so quick to resort to dirty tactics to prove it.

 

[untermensche]

It establishes a pattern.

And intentions.

The remnant of the oligarchy was perfectly happy to shoot innocent people in the streets to try to get rid of Chavez.

Do we think they are above something as mundane as manufactured shortages?

Many of the items missing from the shelves have nothing to do with nationalized industries.

There is no way any government could just pull them out of their behind to put on the shelves.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I really don't know, nor care, much about Venzuela either way. I do, however, want to comment on these pictures of "empty" shelves.



Above we have a picture of a section of shelves, in which four shelves seem to be mostly empty, yet the shelves above, below, and to both sides seem to be quite full. Also, above and to the left you can see a large mirror that shows longer sections of shelves on the other side of the store that seem quite full. Someone needs to brush up on their photoshop skills if they want us to believe the stores are truly that empty. Come on, cropping is not that difficult, people!



This picture is also quite bad at showing how empty the store shelves are. We have an even shorter section of 3 empty shelves, surrounded by fully stocked sections to both sides. Compare these pictures to those of bare shelves in Soviet era Russia if you want to see what really empty store shelves look like. Actually, either one of the above pictures could have been snapped at my local supermarket after a big sale, if not for the "Made in Socialism" sign in the latter one.

Looks like every grocery store in Florida when a hurricane is headed our way. Particular sections are completely empty while other sections are stocked full.

Yeah--they sell out of the products people need.

And note that like a place under hurricane threat it's not just one store that's like this.

- - - Updated - - -

Oh how the Guatemalans suffer.

Look at the percentage of people living in poverty.

In capitalist Haiti it is 80%.

In capitalist Guatemala it is 64%.

In capitalist Honduras it is 60%

In capitalist Mexico it is 51%

And in "socialist" Venezuela it is 32%

http://www.photius.com/rankings/economy/population_below_poverty_line_2014_0.html

And there's some reason we should believe those stats???

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Moscow is a modern world class city. It's not like they haven't developed at all since the fall of communism:

Yeah. Or consider China as they switched from the socialist mess to capitalism. In less than 20 years very familiar parts of Shanghai became totally unrecognizable to my wife.

- - - Updated - - -

And note most of the "attacks" are political attacks coming from the political opposition, which Chavez and now Madero have no qualms about crushing and throwing in jail on dubious charges and kangaroo courts.

Or a nice game they have down there: File charges against the opposition--but then do nothing. The law doesn't permit anyone facing charges to be elected, that means the government can strike anyone from the ballot with ease.

Other so called purposeful shortages are really just businesses that have given up and stopped producing product because they realize that they will be driven to bankruptcy or will soon be due to the government policies. untermenche considers such actions a vicious attack by the oligarchy.

Or businesses whose owners salvaged what they could and left.

 

[untermensche]

Yeah. Or consider China as they switched from the socialist mess to capitalism. In less than 20 years very familiar parts of Shanghai became totally unrecognizable to my wife.

No I agree.

China is getting a nice oligarchy of it's own.

Here are the monuments to them.

 

[dismal]

Good news for Venezuelans - help is on the way:

Economy in tatters, Venezuela's Maduro tells citizens 'God will provide'
Venezuelans have been hit hard by plummeting oil prices and high inflation, and Maduro outlined no specific solutions in his highly anticipated address to the nation last night.

http://news.yahoo.com/economy-tatters-venezuelas-maduro-tells-citizens-god-210857302.html

 

[Trausti]

Good news for Venezuelans - help is on the way:

Economy in tatters, Venezuela's Maduro tells citizens 'God will provide'
Venezuelans have been hit hard by plummeting oil prices and high inflation, and Maduro outlined no specific solutions in his highly anticipated address to the nation last night.

http://news.yahoo.com/economy-tatters-venezuelas-maduro-tells-citizens-god-210857302.html

Heh. The socialists are now invoking God. It must be really, really, bad down there.

 

[Derec]

Heh. The socialists are now invoking God. It must be really, really, bad down there.

Socialist doesn't mean atheist. Yes, US and European socialists often are^* but in South America socialism is usually linked with Liberation Theology. And besides, it's Fidel Castro, not Infidel Castro.

^* and even that is hardly universal. Karl Barth, a neoorthodox theologian said in 1916 that "A real Christian must become a socialist….A real socialist must be a Christian".

 

[Derec]

In America robbers steal from armored trucks carrying cash.
In Bolivarian Venezuela, no, armored trucks do not steal from robbers, that would be Soviet Russia.
But in Venezuela robbers do prefer to steal food to cash. And with Bolivars in free fall who can blame them?
Robbers target food delivery trucks in shortage-hit Venezuela

 

[SimpleDon]

How about Russia. They were advised to institute a free market economy, to privatize everything as quickly as possible to allow the market to bestow its bounty on Russia. How did that work out in your estimation?

And both Venezuela and Russia have economies dependent on oil.

And both are suffering because oil speculators have driven the price downward.

In other words, because of factors beyond their control.

Correction, speculators haven't driven the price of oil down, they no longer can artificially drive the price of oil up in the face of receding demand from Europe and Asia.

Here is a graph of the price of oil and the volume of oil futures derivatives trading. This is the number of trades that are made. It is not a dollar amount.

View attachment 2116​

WTI = West Texas Intermediate, a grade of crude oil delivered in Cushing, Oklahoma. The so-called world price of oil is either Brent (North Sea) oil or OPEC's basket of crude, both of which are generally higher in cost than WTI. My oil well is North Texas Sweet, on par with WTI.

It is pretty obvious that the oil price is being driven up by repeated speculative trading. It was usual before the recent price drop for oil futures contracts to be sold more than a hundred times in a single day, the day that they settle the contract.

So you don't think that the difference in economic structure, one being a largely socialist, centrally controlled one and the other being a Milton Friedman "free market” styled economy has anything to do with their troubles, it all comes down to the price of oil? Neither seems to be doing very well.

What about a country like Ecuador? It is traveling a middle path between the socialistic one of Venezuela and the Milton Friedman and IMF "free market, free trade" model. It is doing pretty well in comparison to either Venezuela or Russia and its exports are mainly oil. (And bananas!)

 

[dismal]

Correction, speculators haven't driven the price of oil down, they no longer can artificially drive the price of oil up in the face of receding demand from Europe and Asia.

If supply and demand are balanced at $100 why would you say speculators drove it there?

 

[SimpleDon]

Yeah. Or consider China as they switched from the socialist mess to capitalism. In less than 20 years very familiar parts of Shanghai became totally unrecognizable to my wife.

No I agree.

China is getting a nice oligarchy of it's own.

Here are the monuments to them.

The major companies in the PRC are still state owned. How is this different from a socialism mess?

I lived in Shanghai for a couple of years twenty years ago. They had just built the bridge across the river to Pudong. I can't believe the Google earth pictures of Shanghai now.

My father was born in Shanghai. He visited me there in the early 1990's and not only could he find the house that he lived in the 1930's, there were people living there who remembered him and his family. Now I can't even find it on the map, the entire neighborhood is gone.

 

[SimpleDon]

Correction, speculators haven't driven the price of oil down, they no longer can artificially drive the price of oil up in the face of receding demand from Europe and Asia.

If supply and demand are balanced at $100 why would you say speculators drove it there?

Explain the graph to me. Why does the price of oil go up when the number of oil future trades increase?

Alternately, if the supply of oil increased pretty much in proportion to the demand over the decade why did the price vary by 500%?