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US President 2016 - the Great Horse Race

 
 
 
And he gets another kick in the teeth today: Open letter from 50 GOP Foreign policy experts, saying he'd be 'the most reckless president in history.'

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry...e4b0aae2a5a0ba36?section=&section=us_politics

Includes Ridge, Negroponte, and 48 other people formerly occupying important posts. The sort of high level people a decent presidential candidate would want on an advisory committee.
 
Utah looks safe-ish for Trump, though polling at under 40%!

Monmouth poll came out, gave Clinton a big lead. Women are about 2 to 1 for Clinton now. Apparently explaining away sexual harassment is this election cycle's "legitimate rape". #notallsexualharassment
blastula said:
The polls look to be leveling off but no tightening yet. Clinton is up 7 in GA in latest poll.
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Being up 7 pts in GA is huge! A democrat hasn't won by that margin since Jimmy Carter.
 
Sarpedon said:
And he gets another kick in the teeth today: Open letter from 50 GOP Foreign policy experts, saying he'd be 'the most reckless president in history.'

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry...d2dce4b0aae2a5a0ba36?section=§ion=us_politics

Includes Ridge, Negroponte, and 48 other people formerly occupying important posts. The sort of high level people a decent presidential candidate would want on an advisory committee.
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I bet Trump doesn't understand the Petrodollar system...
 
PA poll indicating it isn't close, 10 pts for Clinton. Those who are certain about who they are voting for is solidifying, 88%.

NBC national poll indicates Clinton's lead with women is growing, near the 2 to 1 seen in other polls. The gap among men is tightening, getting closer to a dead heat. Clinton has pulled ahead of non-college grads. The only thing that Trump is leading with is White Men, 58 to 35 and evangelicals 71 to 22, but lost 11 points through July, most likely from last week (presumably female evangelicals).
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
PA poll indicating it isn't close, 10 pts for Clinton. Those who are certain about who they are voting for is solidifying, 88%.

NBC national poll indicates Clinton's lead with women is growing, near the 2 to 1 seen in other polls. The gap among men is tightening, getting closer to a dead heat. Clinton has pulled ahead of non-college grads. The only thing that Trump is leading with is White Men, 58 to 35 and evangelicals 71 to 22, but lost 11 points through July, most likely from last week (presumably female evangelicals).
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I think that the main thing this election has done is expose the utter hypocrisy of the evangelicals in America. Trump is the literal embodiment of everything that they claim to be against, but they are his strongest supporters. One more reason to despise evangelicals.

I do not, however, mean that to indicate that ALL evangelicals are Trump supporters. It's a religion of peace and those who do support him aren't real evangelicals. #notallevangelicals
 
PPP releases poll for North Carolina.

Clinton up by a point. The Republican for Trump and Democrat for Clinton is about even. Clinton is doing about as well with women and Trump is with men. PPP has typically been closer to Trump in polls for months. This poll is trending in favor of Clinton, which makes the lead, while small, significant. The biggest take away is that Trump's unfavorability has increased, which would be expected after publicly belittling a mother with an infant.

Now the depressing part.

PPP Poll said:
69% of Trump voters think that if Hillary Clinton wins the election it will be because it was rigged, to only 16% who think it would be because she got more vote than Trump. More specifically 40% of Trump voters think that ACORN (which hasn't existed in years) will steal the election for Clinton.
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Are you fucking kidding me? Nearly 3 in 4 think it'll be because it is rigged? 2 in 5 Trump supporters think an organization that did nothing wrong and hasn't existed in years will help Clinton steal the election. Are we possibly looking at protests if Clinton wins because such a large portion of right-wingers are fucking out of their minds?
 
So, if Trump has narcissistic personality disorder, what's the disorder called that his followers who believe things like ACORN rigging the election have?
 
Shadowy Man said:
So, if Trump has narcissistic personality disorder, what's the disorder called that his followers who believe things like ACORN rigging the election have?
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What is it that they call that disorder where you're just a fucking stupid moron? They have that one.
 
Everyone has a neurosis. People are called crazy when their neurosis doesn't match their role in society. An egomaniac king isn't necessarily a bad thing. An obsessive-compulsive accountant is probably quite effective. The farmer with seasonal-affective disorder is efficient. But give the king seasonal affective disorder, the accountant the egomania, and the farmer obsessive-compulsive disorder, and suddenly things start looking crazy.
 
Shadowy Man said:
So, if Trump has narcissistic personality disorder, what's the disorder called that his followers who believe things like ACORN rigging the election have?
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Rightwingmedia Insanity Disorder. Back in the 90s, the AM-radio/frothing portion of the republicans was like 5-10%. Now it's about 70%.
 
Right wing insanity is on an equal par with Left wing insanity. Only a couple of decades ago many left wingers were strong supporters of the Soviet Union!
 
angelo said:
Right wing insanity is on an equal par with Left wing insanity. Only a couple of decades ago many left wingers were strong supporters of the Soviet Union!
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Yup, you clearly continue to have no idea what you are talking about.
 
I am politicophobic. I fear politicians. I fear government.

There are professional politicians -- people who have only ever made a living by being popular to their voters. The wink, wink at every large donation, and, coincidentally some government funding or ruling to that donor's benefit. Political power is a game of the golden rule: he who has the gold makes the rules. He who pays the piper calls the tune. A "good" politician stays bought. Hillary is the quintessential politician.
Hillary is owned by, or at least owes favors to, foreign governments through donations to the Clinton Foundation.
She was damaged by a brain injury and is unfit to be president. She has lied under oath and doubled down.

Trump has just one thing going for him. He is not Hillary.

He does stupid things like attacking the Kahns. Yeesh. He should have said something like this: I see the DNC has trotted out a Good American Muslim. I'll see your one Kahn with one Hassan, and raise you a Muslim terrorist attack in Orlando. It is the 16-25 year old male refugees I fear. He seems to respond without thought as to how it may be perceived by the general public.

I fear for the country. Comey outlined the case for indictment. Why did Clinton make his tarmac visit? In order to get Lynch to recuse herself, which she did, because he had bought Comey and knew what he would say.

Every election is the lesser of the two evils. I think I'll vote libertarian. No, wait, that's a vote for Hillary. Anyone but Hillary.
 
Fuck Trump. Utah Democrats... vote for Johnson! Remember that thing about wasting a vote on a third-party? Well, I think Utah may offer Democrats an unusual opportunity.

Donald "Small Paws" Trump has a sizable lead over Clinton in Utah now. However, he is polling less than 40%. Less than 40% implies something very simple, a third party candidate is drawing pretty well. In an effort to really embarrass this asshole, I think Democrat voters should not waste their vote on Hillary Clinton and vote for the third party candidate and take Utah from Trump!

Also, here is my Path to 400 EVs, a number not seen since HW Bush (I may have said Reagan earlier, but that was incorrect). And no, I didn't have a stroke putting Mississippi in Clinton's column... that is very wishful thinking.

map2.jpg
 
George S said:
I am politicophobic. I fear politicians. I fear government.

There are professional politicians -- people who have only ever made a living by being popular to their voters. The wink, wink at every large donation, and, coincidentally some government funding or ruling to that donor's benefit. Political power is a game of the golden rule: he who has the gold makes the rules. He who pays the piper calls the tune. A "good" politician stays bought. Hillary is the quintessential politician.
Hillary is owned by, or at least owes favors to, foreign governments through donations to the Clinton Foundation.
She was damaged by a brain injury and is unfit to be president. She has lied under oath and doubled down.

Trump has just one thing going for him. He is not Hillary.

He does stupid things like attacking the Kahns. Yeesh. He should have said something like this: I see the DNC has trotted out a Good American Muslim. I'll see your one Kahn with one Hassan, and raise you a Muslim terrorist attack in Orlando. It is the 16-25 year old male refugees I fear. He seems to respond without thought as to how it may be perceived by the general public.

I fear for the country. Comey outlined the case for indictment. Why did Clinton make his tarmac visit? In order to get Lynch to recuse herself, which she did, because he had bought Comey and knew what he would say.

Every election is the lesser of the two evils. I think I'll vote libertarian. No, wait, that's a vote for Hillary. Anyone but Hillary.
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Some people are unfit to be president and some people are unfit to vote.
 
Hmm, from what I have seen, South Carolina is a better bet for Clinton than either Missouri or Mississippi, though all three are close-ish. If people really react badly to his latest, they might be in play. I'd almost wonder if SC is more in play than Indiana. Swapping the two will also get you to 400.
 
Well, she doesn't actually need to win those states, she just needs to get up turnout in enough key congressional districts in those states to flip some seats in the House and get the Dems into a majority. While it would be nice to get 400 or so EVs, there's not really a difference between that and 300 (a little bit of padding is nice in case of unexpected events). The Presidency is a done deal and her efforts are better spent focusing on helping out the downticket races.
 
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