People are not being properly skeptical of Corona virus news.

[AdamWho]

People are not being properly skeptical of Corona virus news. Shockingly neither are many skeptics....

The news thrives on drama and conflict and I believe much of the panic around the Corona virus is driven by the news cycle and not by facts.

1. We don’t really know the death rate of the Corona virus.

While the virus seems to be spreading around the world, huge numbers of people seem to be asymptomatic, so we simply do not know the denominator any death rate calculation.

The VAST majority of people are not being tested because they are asymptomatic, again this means that we don’t know the total infected.

The initial death rate out of China was misleading because the numbers included people with prior health conditions, this cause the rate to be much higher than it would be in non-sick people.

2. We have an accidental controlled study on the death rate with the Princess Cruise. That death rate is 0.85% which is SIGNIFICANTLY lower than in promoted in other sources.

3. We have seen similar claims from similar viruses. The SARS virus, which the news also created a panic had claimed initial fatality rates 10x higher than it turned out to be. It turns out this over estimation is typical because the first cases tend to be in vulnerable populations before the infection can be isolated.

4 The seasonal flu in the US has kills 10,000+ people already this year, which is more than the Corona virus has killed worldwide. You don’t hear about it because it isn’t good click-bait.

***

Here is a sane layman article discussing why the Corona virus death rate is much lower than reported
https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/coronavirus-mortality-rate-lower-than-we-think.html

For those too lazy to read, Healthcare Triage is an excellent evidence-based channel on YouTube

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6CJXJf9i2A8

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aHXNVN7vQbg

****

Take a look a South Korea, a country with high populations and good testing.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/

The 'Daily new Cases' chart is showing that the Corona virus is essentially over for them.


Same with the 'Daily new Cases' China
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/

Here is what we are going to see over the next couple of weeks:

* As new countries get the virus we are going to see roughly a 2 - 3 week cycle. This will keep the virus in the news and people scared.

* I would bet the world wide death toll NEVER reaches the season flu deaths in the US. ~10 - 12,000

* This panic will damage the world economy over what we would normally consider a blip in annual viral infection rates.

* The stupidity of the media and the public's panic is going to wind-up making Trump look smart.

***

Just because a corrupt, incompetent, lying, moron like Trump is saying that Corona isn’t a big deal doesn’t mean we should take the opposite side.

* We need to be evidence driven and not be led by a news media addicted to drama and panic.

* We should never be on the wrong side of an issue for political reasons.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

We are aware that the mortality rate is well under 2% on average. We also seem to have evidence that the death toll among the elderly and people with compromised immune systems, is significantly higher than that. This isn't Spanish Influenza, but it isn't the common cold.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Regarding the flu: There is a vaccine for the flu. Less than half of the US population gets an annual flu shot. 80% of children who die from the flu were not vaccinated. I could not find numbers on adult unvaccinated deaths. It’s likely similar.
We are not sure how contagious the Coronavirus is yet. Given how new this virus is and that it may mutate, how little information we have on it, and how far off a vaccine is, an over abundance of caution is prudence not panic.

 

[AdamWho]

We are aware that the mortality rate is well under 2% on average. We also seem to have evidence that the death toll among the elderly and people with compromised immune systems, is significantly higher than that. This isn't Spanish Influenza, but it isn't the common cold.

Who is this "We"

The media is inducing a panic and people are making clearly irrational decisions

 

[Loren Pechtel]

The initial death rate out of China was misleading because the numbers included people with prior health conditions, this cause the rate to be much higher than it would be in non-sick people.

Real people often have pre-existing conditions. You don't get to pretend it will only infect those without health issues.

2. We have an accidental controlled study on the death rate with the Princess Cruise. That death rate is 0.85% which is SIGNIFICANTLY lower than in promoted in other sources.

Observation: We have two different results: 3.4% in Hubei, under 1% elsewhere. What this is actually showing is the death toll with competent medical care vs the death toll when the healthcare system is utterly overloaded. If we keep this under control with social distancing the Diamond Princess is a good model. If we fail to keep it under control we will end up like Hubei.

 

[Funkytrip]

What we should track properly is the death rate amongst older people (75+) or something. If that is like 5% or so, it would mean roughly 1 in 20 elderly people die from it. That is serious and would validate the 'panic'. Sure, I will survive it easily, but if I can avoid giving my elderly mom the disease by not giving hands or not traveling to heavily infected areas, I would.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

We are aware that the mortality rate is well under 2% on average. We also seem to have evidence that the death toll among the elderly and people with compromised immune systems, is significantly higher than that. This isn't Spanish Influenza, but it isn't the common cold.

Who is this "We"

The media is inducing a panic and people are making clearly irrational decisions

I admit to being a bit out of the news, as I've been wrestling with a family thing for a few weeks. But from what I can tell, where I live, people aren't panicking. In Seattle, some people are panicking.

 

[ZiprHead]

 

[ideologyhunter]

Pshaw. It's an American birthright to show asscrack in the WalMart.

 

[skepticalbip]

What we should track properly is the death rate amongst older people (75+) or something. If that is like 5% or so, it would mean roughly 1 in 20 elderly people die from it. That is serious and would validate the 'panic'. Sure, I will survive it easily, but if I can avoid giving my elderly mom the disease by not giving hands or not traveling to heavily infected areas, I would.

No it wouldn't. It would mean 1 in 20 elderly people who become infected would die.

If 1 in 10 become infected then it would mean that 1 in 200 elderly people would die from the virus. If 1 in 100 become infected then it would mean that 1 in 2000 elderly people would die from the virus.

 

[Horatio Parker]

I heard in S. Korea, where they can test 10k/day with results in 10 minutes, the mortality rate is .2%. Twice the mortality rate of the flu.

That seems to me sufficient reason to take it seriously, which we are not doing.

 

[Gun Nut]

Pshaw. It's an American birthright to show asscrack in the WalMart.

he's not "showing asscrack".. he's "coating his fingers in feces and then presumably touching things in the store that you may come along and touch after him".

did you not make that connection?

 

[funinspace]

A couple thoughts...

Italy had one of the oldest median age population of all countries, ergo their troubles with deaths.

SK thru massive containment/testing efforts is a large part of what has kept it under control. And their median age is way below Italy's.

Older people get flu shots in high percentages. There is no Covid-19 vaccine. Without containment efforts this virus will hit 60+ year old people pretty hard. Its not just deaths, but long hospitalizations.
https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-myths.html

Myth: You're waaaay less likely to get this than the flu

Not necessarily. To estimate how easily a virus spreads, scientists calculate its "basic reproduction number," or R0 (pronounced R-nought). R0 predicts the number of people who can catch a given bug from a single infected person, Live Science previously reported. Currently, the R0 for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes the disease COVID-19, is estimated at about 2.2, meaning a single infected person will infect about 2.2 others, on average. By comparison, the flu has an R0 of 1.3.

Perhaps, most importantly, while no vaccine exists to prevent COVID-19, the seasonal flu vaccine prevents influenza relatively well, even when its formulation doesn't perfectly match the circulating viral strains.

 

[AdamWho]

I heard in S. Korea, where they can test 10k/day with results in 10 minutes, the mortality rate is .2%. Twice the mortality rate of the flu.

That seems to me sufficient reason to take it seriously, which we are not doing.

But that is less than a 1/10 the rate claimed by the news media (3%). We should give in exactly twice the concern we give the seasonal flu... which is almost zero.

The Korean "Daily new cases" is going to zero. The same for China.

This is over in these countries

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/

 

[Horatio Parker]

I heard in S. Korea, where they can test 10k/day with results in 10 minutes, the mortality rate is .2%. Twice the mortality rate of the flu.

That seems to me sufficient reason to take it seriously, which we are not doing.

But that is less than a 1/10 the rate claimed by the news media (3%). We should give in exactly twice the concern we give the seasonal flu... which is almost zero.

The Korean "Daily new cases" is going to zero. The same for China.

This is over in these countries

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/

I think the media bases 3% on WHO sources.

Your analysis ignores the high communicability and the absence of a vaccine.

China and SK have taken more concrete steps than we have. Are the Chinese etc displaying the correct amount of concern?

 

[TV and credit cards]

What we should track properly is the death rate amongst older people (75+) or something. If that is like 5% or so, it would mean roughly 1 in 20 elderly people die from it. That is serious and would validate the 'panic'. Sure, I will survive it easily, but if I can avoid giving my elderly mom the disease by not giving hands or not traveling to heavily infected areas, I would.

Some percentages here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

 

[Loren Pechtel]

What we should track properly is the death rate amongst older people (75+) or something. If that is like 5% or so, it would mean roughly 1 in 20 elderly people die from it. That is serious and would validate the 'panic'.

We don't have that data, but what we have appears to be worse (it's Chinese data so it might not be representative):

70-79, 8%
80+, 14.8%

Note that it appears that other health conditions you have picked up over the years actually matter more than your age, a healthier population would see a lower death rate.

Sure, I will survive it easily, but if I can avoid giving my elderly mom the disease by not giving hands or not traveling to heavily infected areas, I would.

That's where I stand. 1.3% by age but with no relevant health issues I think my chances are pretty good. She's older, though, and has one of the lesser relevant health issues.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I heard in S. Korea, where they can test 10k/day with results in 10 minutes, the mortality rate is .2%. Twice the mortality rate of the flu.

That seems to me sufficient reason to take it seriously, which we are not doing.

But that is less than a 1/10 the rate claimed by the news media (3%). We should give in exactly twice the concern we give the seasonal flu... which is almost zero.

The Korean "Daily new cases" is going to zero. The same for China.

This is over in these countries

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/

There are two very different profiles for the disease--Hubei, with a 3.4% mortality rate, and the rest of the world (including the rest of China) with a <1% mortality rate. Note that there is one big difference: The medical care received. The system was utterly swamped in Hubei, many of those who died got no meaningful medical care. This is not saying the medical system in Hubei was bad, but that it was hit with far more cases than it could handle--every medical system in the world will fail the same way, the only question is how many cases it takes to cause that failure. Note that Italy seems to be swamped at this point, expect to see a high fatality rate there.

Note that this also matches up with the apparent pattern in patients--only about 20% of patients get the infection down into their lungs. Most of those can be saved by the doctors but only if there is enough equipment.

 

[Treedbear]

...
Note that this also matches up with the apparent pattern in patients--only about 20% of patients get the infection down into their lungs. Most of those can be saved by the doctors but only if there is enough equipment.

I'd guess it's important to get the adult pneumonia vaccines if you're 65 or older. It doesn't protect against coronovirus but it probably will help protect against other infections that can result from it. I just got my 2nd shot yesterday (at least 1 year + 1 day after the first in order for it to be covered by Medicare).

 

[Politesse]

I heard in S. Korea, where they can test 10k/day with results in 10 minutes, the mortality rate is .2%. Twice the mortality rate of the flu.

That seems to me sufficient reason to take it seriously, which we are not doing.

But that is less than a 1/10 the rate claimed by the news media (3%). We should give in exactly twice the concern we give the seasonal flu... which is almost zero.

The Korean "Daily new cases" is going to zero. The same for China.

This is over in these countries

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/

I strongly, strongly disagree that we either should or do ignore the influenza viruses.