Greece, what the fuck?

[barbos]

looks like polls predict "No" so this greek soap opera will continue.

 

[Jayjay]

Greek banks will run out of cash. It's not just about government debt or austerity, it's that lots of ordinary people are about to lose whatever little savings they might have had. The rich have moved away their money long time ago. And for what? Because Tsipras disagreed with the eurogroup about cutting pensions a bit or some other trivial shit.

 

[Horatio Parker]

I wonder if Syriza's plan was not Grexit all along. It explains a few things.


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[rousseau]

So is the referendum about leadership dodging political responsibility for the country, or something else?

It is about the idea that some leaders actually believe in democracy.

Shoving harmful ideas down the throats of voters happens so often in the US some think that is democracy.

Time and time again we find that the general public are not informed enough to make decisions like this, so shouldn't Greek leadership be in a much better position to make this decision? Isn't that why we elect political leaders?

 

[Jayjay]

It is about the idea that some leaders actually believe in democracy.

Shoving harmful ideas down the throats of voters happens so often in the US some think that is democracy.

Time and time again we find that the general public are not informed enough to make decisions like this, so shouldn't Greek leadership be in a much better position to make this decision? Isn't that why we elect political leaders?

Especially considering that the poll is so close, that whatever the elected leaders advocate is goign to swing it one way or the other anyway. If the results are 48 to 52, the real answer from the people is neither "Yes" or "No", it's "We don't know".

 

[Derec]

Greek banks will run out of cash. It's not just about government debt or austerity, it's that lots of ordinary people are about to lose whatever little savings they might have had. The rich have moved away their money long time ago. And for what? Because Tsipras disagreed with the eurogroup about cutting pensions a bit or some other trivial shit.

It's those 'ordinary people' who apparently voted for this. Like H.L. Mencken said, "Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard."

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Greek banks will run out of cash. It's not just about government debt or austerity, it's that lots of ordinary people are about to lose whatever little savings they might have had. The rich have moved away their money long time ago. And for what? Because Tsipras disagreed with the eurogroup about cutting pensions a bit or some other trivial shit.

Because they refused to face up to the reality that they were living beyond their means.

 

[DrZoidberg]

I wonder if Syriza's plan was not Grexit all along. It explains a few things.


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Syrzia is a leftist coalition all over the map. All that can be said of Syrzia in general is that they´re not neo-liberals. That´s one of the few things they rally around. They´ve got everything from hardline communists to centrists and social democrats onboard. There´s no clear party line for or against EU and the Euro. Tsipras main job is to hold together this alliance, which explains why he has been hedging all his bets. That is his job description. The reason for this referendum is because Syrzia internally couldn´t agree on a "no". I do not envy Tsipras position. Syrzia´s cobbled together nature means that his power is extraordinarily weak and tenuous.

 

[fromderinside]

I wonder if Syriza's plan was not Grexit all along. It explains a few things.


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Syrzia is a leftist coalition all over the map. All that can be said of Syrzia in general is that they´re not neo-liberals. That´s one of the few things they rally around. They´ve got everything from hardline communists to centrists and social democrats onboard. There´s no clear party line for or against EU and the Euro. Tsipras main job is to hold together this alliance, which explains why he has been hedging all his bets. That is his job description. The reason for this referendum is because Syrzia internally couldn´t agree on a "no". I do not envy Tsipras position. Syrzia´s cobbled together nature means that his power is extraordinarily weak and tenuous.

don't confuse the people saying no to not being made to enlist as corporate serfs as a rejection of the EU or the euro. Party mix here won't do you any good.

Economic realities are the country is in the place it is in because regimes right, center, and left, used their position to give favors to friends, usually those who gave them money who are not people of Greek streets. Being in that place is not license for other donation givers elsewhere to punish the Greek street.

Debts must be forgiven. Monitoring controls for government should be slowly put in place to control excess and temptation to favor those who are one's friends. The standard of living existing before the crisis should be re-established, then and only then, the EU should extract performance for good behavior within a viable regime.

 

[Jayjay]

The people might not have voted against Euro, but the No vote has a fair chance of leading to that, and the Greek voters knew that.

The No votes now lead by 61% and seems certain that they won. Tsipras's hands are tied, he can't now accept the Eurogroup demands even if he or some others in his party wanted to, so the ball is in Europe's court now. The way I see it there are two ways forward:

1) The troika accepts Greece's counter-proposal to restructure the debt and continue aid. ECB probably would have to release more funds to keep the Greek banks afloat for a while. This seems to be what Greece was hoping to achieve with the referendum, but it's not certain to work. There is considerable political difficulties for Eurogroup to back down, and debt forgiveness would set up a bad precedent that might have horrific consequences for Italy and Spain that are next in line for speculators to draw under.

2) The troika says "oxi" on the other hand, then I see no other way than Greek exit from Euro. I don't think that this would be such a bad prospect... in short term, it would mean a lot of hardships for Greece when prices of European goods (including food) skyrockets, but in medium term things would look brighter because it would put an end to the austerity measures and the endless bailout negotiations. Greece would have to act quickly though, because the banks will run out of cash early next week, so the transition to drachma would have to occur practically overnight.

 

[untermensche]

It is about the idea that some leaders actually believe in democracy.

Shoving harmful ideas down the throats of voters happens so often in the US some think that is democracy.

Time and time again we find that the general public are not informed enough to make decisions like this, so shouldn't Greek leadership be in a much better position to make this decision? Isn't that why we elect political leaders?

We see nothing of the sort.

What we see time and time again is people shunning the democratic process because they know it is a fixed game.

State wide referendums are common place and many US States have more people than Greece.

 

[fromderinside]

2) The troika says "oxi" on the other hand, then I see no other way than Greek exit from Euro. I don't think that this would be such a bad prospect... in short term, it would mean a lot of hardships for Greece when prices of European goods (including food) skyrockets, but in medium term things would look brighter because it would put an end to the austerity measures and the endless bailout negotiations. Greece would have to act quickly though, because the banks will run out of cash early next week, so the transition to drachma would have to occur practically overnight.

If the troika removes Greece there will be more disruption than if they let the IMF notion hold sway. Those nations you see falling under speculation will do so so why should they put up with anything other than a favorable forgiveness of debt. Its gonna cost speculators and some banks fairly dearly. But its about time the EU recognizes each state is a more or less independent economic as well as political entity. Such a plan might even begin to clear up the under financed and capitalized nations of the north and east as well. After all, everybody knows money can be printed. Just continue the printing of money and use part of it to buy back the worthless paper that exists in Greece. The rest of the world can choose to put up with that or have a hissy fit to no avail. The EU is nowhere near as papered thin as is the US and here we are recovering much more nicely than the EU. A lesson?

 

[Jayjay]

2) The troika says "oxi" on the other hand, then I see no other way than Greek exit from Euro. I don't think that this would be such a bad prospect... in short term, it would mean a lot of hardships for Greece when prices of European goods (including food) skyrockets, but in medium term things would look brighter because it would put an end to the austerity measures and the endless bailout negotiations. Greece would have to act quickly though, because the banks will run out of cash early next week, so the transition to drachma would have to occur practically overnight.

If the troika removes Greece there will be more disruption than if they let the IMF notion hold sway. Those nations you see falling under speculation will do so so why should they put up with anything other than a favorable forgiveness of debt. Its gonna cost speculators and some banks fairly dearly.

The private investment banks have been paid off a long time ago. Most of the European bailout money went to them, not Greece, and the current credits are just doing damage control. The terms that Greece has now are already basically charity.

Here is the problem with financial speculators: A lot of people made a lot of money from Greece falling under, and if they know they can get away with doing it again, they will do it again.

Greece exit to me is beginning to sound like the best remaining option.

 

[fromderinside]

If the troika removes Greece there will be more disruption than if they let the IMF notion hold sway. Those nations you see falling under speculation will do so so why should they put up with anything other than a favorable forgiveness of debt. Its gonna cost speculators and some banks fairly dearly.

The private investment banks have been paid off a long time ago. Most of the European bailout money went to them, not Greece, and the current credits are just doing damage control. The terms that Greece has now are already basically charity.

Here is the problem with financial speculators: A lot of people made a lot of money from Greece falling under, and if they know they can get away with doing it again, they will do it again.

Greece exit to me is beginning to sound like the best remaining option.

First rule of economics. Speculators always get eaten in the end. The first speculators that got away wit it were the banks. They got paid off.

Throw a curve. Bring Greece back into fold as I said and pretend their fake debt doesn't exist. Print money. Establish rules on speculation like the US did in 2009. Punish the SOBS if they try to profit. Send some to jail. Fine the shit out of investment bankers who are feeding the speculation frenzies. Greece has no role in this. Let them continue as a nation with some guidance about how to govern without patronage. Finland might also profit form such activities. Why the hell ar you in depression when you play by the rules? the wrong people are in control that's why.
There is no need for depression when your basic politics and economy are sound. So support getting at those who live on volatility.

 

[Lumpenproletariat]

Greece has taken the first step by voting "NO" -- now they need to go the rest of the way.

Isn't there a way for a country to operate WITHOUT running up chronic debt? I can't believe they would just all starve. Why can't a nation do its budget and public functions on a pay-as-you-go basis?

Yes, but it's not as efficient because it limits the amount of money you can invest for future growth.

Yes, good investment is best. But that's not what Greece has been doing. It's been wasting that loan money. I say they've wasted it on high wages/benefits to workers, when they should have slashed that even more, and even then the Greek workers would be doing better than the Bulgarians, who are not starving.

You say they've wasted it on bankers, or --- whatever, it's been wasted, didn't go to improving Greece for the future.

So whatever, they've wasted it, and they should stop doing the same thing anymore. They should not try to "negotiate" a better deal which would only be more of the same. Rather, they should tighten their belts, do whatever it takes, on a pay-as-you-go basis for now, with maybe no chance of any future borrowing for decades, as no one will trust them. So be it.

You might as well ask, why do private companies seek capital investors even if it means giving up equity and paying dividends, rather than pay everything up-front from their own profits?

Yes, there's a proper role for debt, done not to pay interest on past debt and keep the addiction going, but to build the economy (or the business, the infrastructure, whatever). But that's not what most countries are doing with all this debt. They are doing it to "stimulate" the economy, i.e., "create jobs" and support higher wages/benefits to workers, to "stimulate demand" or goose the economy, because some economists believe such spending somehow creates prosperity.

As long as this is why they do the debts, they're really making the economy worse off in the long run. Goosing the economy, or "economic stimulus" is good only in the short term, as an instant gratification, not long-term health of the economy.

So all this debt should be curtailed, some countries should default, following the example of Greece. And the hardship will be a time of recovery from all this debt addiction.

There's probably also too much debt on the part of business. The debt addiction goes beyond just the government. But governments get away with it easier, and they end up causing more harm.

Also, you used Lithuania as an example, but keep in mind, that Lithuanian national debt (even if one of the lowest in Europe), is still around 40% of the country's GDP.

Yes, other countries also are running up too much debt, not just Greece. They need to stop it.

Maybe now that Greece has taken the first step, we will begin to see an end to this. The next step is to abandon the illusion of "negotiating a better deal" and get down to the tough business of figuring out how a nation can struggle along without further debt.

Moderate healthy responsible debt, to build the future and not for instant gratification, could still return. But for now Greece and some other countries need a period of recovery from the present debt addiction.

 

[untermensche]

Greek Voters Decisively Reject Bailout

The no votes carried virtually every district in the country, handing a sweeping victory to Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, a leftist who came to power in January vowing to reject new austerity measures.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/06/world/europe/greek-referendum-debt-crisis-vote.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=span-ab-top-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0

 

[Lumpenproletariat]

The "NO's" win in a landslide -- Not even close. What happened?

Were the pollsters wrong? It was supposed to be a toss-up.

Could it be there's a "silent majority" (or large minority) in Greece that is seeing a third choice?

I.e., DEFAULT, and then no more debt. No new "negotiation" for a better deal. Pay-as-you-go only.

Maybe a significant number of voters were thinking this, but they were afraid to say so to the pollsters. If I were a Greek voter and a pollster asked me which way I would vote, I might say I was undecided because I was turned off by both sides -- one giving in to the latest bailout deal to continue the same bad course, and the other demanding more "negotiation" to get a more generous bailout and less austerity.

Both these sides are wrong. The right side is: DEFAULT and put an end to this nonsense, this snake-oil economics that says we have to keep borrowing more and more in order to "stimulate" the economy, keep begging for more welfare in order to pay off some of the past debt as the new debt puts us in the hole even deeper still.

 

[Jayjay]

Yes, but it's not as efficient because it limits the amount of money you can invest for future growth.

Yes, good investment is best. But that's not what Greece has been doing. It's been wasting that loan money. I say they've wasted it on high wages/benefits to workers, when they should have slashed that even more, and even then the Greek workers would be doing better than the Bulgarians, who are not starving.

You say they've wasted it on bankers, or --- whatever, it's been wasted, didn't go to improving Greece for the future.

So whatever, they've wasted it, and they should stop doing the same thing anymore. They should not try to "negotiate" a better deal which would only be more of the same. Rather, they should tighten their belts, do whatever it takes, on a pay-as-you-go basis for now, with maybe no chance of any future borrowing for decades, as no one will trust them. So be it.

I don't disagree, but your question was why countries are better off having debt than "payign as they go". Only utterly bankrupt countries that have no other options because nobody would lend them a dime do so, and are much worse off for it. Pretending that the Greek problems are magically solved if they just default is not realistic, even you seem to think that's a good idea only because you have exactly the same punishment mentality shared by most of the Eurogroup countries.

All I can say is... Welcome to the club!

Also, you used Lithuania as an example, but keep in mind, that Lithuanian national debt (even if one of the lowest in Europe), is still around 40% of the country's GDP.

Yes, other countries also are running up too much debt, not just Greece. They need to stop it.

How much is too much? Economists seem to think that up to 60% of GDP is fine in terms of it having a negligible economic impact. But there's really no consensus on where to draw the line.

 

[tupac chopra]

If the troika removes Greece

Using what law or rule, would the Troika remove Greece?

 

[SimpleDon]

If you tax people more, they spend less in the economy so even more business go bust more people go out of work. This is why austerity measures can be slow and sometimes not work altogether. The Greeks didn't feel that they should be penalised for the cock ups of their government, many of whom have lost their businesses.

This is why austerity can't work. The economy contracts faster than the debt can be paid off. They end up with exactly what we see in Greece today after nearly six years of austerity, a severely damaged economy with more debt than they had before the the austerity. How can this make any sense to anyone?

If any government runs a budget surplus it is taking money out of the economy. The only place that this money can come is the savings of individuals and companies. There is no other place for it to come from.

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They should repo the Greek islands and give them to Germany.

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It is important for the Greeks to be able to get their economy running well again.

Yet they elected an extremist government that makes that all but impossible.

The Greeks voted out the government who they fell mismanaged the economy and got the country into such a mess.

All that the new government is saying is the obvious fact that austerity doesn't work to pay off this huge level of debt. This is nothing more than the truth. There is nothing extremist about this.