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Yet another war, this time with Iran

Bronzeage said:
So it seems likely that at some point Iran will capture a US service-person. Likely from a downed aircraft.
crazyfingers said:
.

Will Iran treat that person as a prisoner of war or as a terrorist?

And how will Trump react? I think that Trump's natural inclination is to chalk the person down as a loser but his sycophants might persuade him not to do that. Will he start blowing up the electricity infrastructure? Will he order tactical nukes? Will he negotiate?

Iran is a 1 or 0. Trump is a continuum of responses, probably mostly counterproductive.
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The first captured US serviceman will be treated as a publicity asset worth his weight in gold.

As for Trump's reaction, it will be drowned out by everyone on the internet replaying the video clip where Trump says, "He's a war hero because he was captured. I like people that weren't captured."
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A lot more than that. A 200 pound man with gold at $5,000/oz, is worth $16,000,000.

The Iranians will be demanding billions for him. They will demand a cessation of all bombing and reparations. They will threaten to have a war crimes trial. But they’ll hold off.

Trump’s options are not good:

1) walking away. He can’t walk away as he was going to. The political damage to him abandoning an American POW would be catastrophic.

2) pay them. He can’t pay it. That would effectively be surrendering and equally catastrophic politically.

3). Continue the war. He can continue the war, but then the straits aren’t opened and the economic damage will destroy him politically.

4. Invade. He can try to invade but that would be equally disastrous, actually ten times worse. Although it might open the straits.

Bottom line is he’s fucked if they capture this guy. He better pray really, really hard to god that this guy is either rescued or dead. Of course, there is no god. So that won’t fucking work either.

This is an object lesson in the perils of unpredictability in war. Clausewitz’s friction. You just can’t control what happens. These people are such fucking morons. I don’t think Trump lets hegseth survive the week. The level of stupidity and lack of strategic thinking is just beyond any parallels.

I’d bet on 3. It delays things. But he’s unpredictable.
 
SLD said:
This is an object lesson in the perils of unpredictability in war.
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Yes but, any competent administration would have foreseen the perils of any US service person being taken prisoner by Iran.

I strongly doubt that this administration is that competent. So Trump will wing it when it happens. When. The longer this goes on the more certain that it's When, not If.

I can only hope that the person will be released and Trump will be politically destroyed.
 
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My understanding is that the F-15E fighter jet had a pilot and a weapons system officer. It's the pilot that was rescued. What happened to the other person?

Now, there was also a second aircraft an A-10 shot over the Persian Gulf and it crashed there. The US is being very hush hush about it. Perhaps they will rescue someone or it could be beyond that.

Iran also hit an oil refinery in Kuwait.

If there is any upcoming good news about this, it will be reported. If there is bad news, it might not be reported by the US govt.
 
Politesse said:
That was just one of many heinous war crimes committed by Bill Clinton during his tenure.
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What are some other alleged war crimes?
And surely, the wrong was for Clinton to provide air force for Shiptar separatists, not that bridges were targeted, as they are in almost every war.
If you're trying to argue that two wrongs always make a right, there are some excellent preschools I can recommend for you, to begin the journey of finishing your education.
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Personal insult. Nice.
 
Don2 (Don1 Revised) said:
My understanding is that the F-15E fighter jet had a pilot and a weapons system officer. It's the pilot that was rescued. What happened to the other person?
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Well, quite likely the WSO ejected before or after the pilot, and they landed some distance apart - even a few seconds is long enough to travel a long way at F-15 speeds. Or he may not have ejected - he could have been incapacitated, or had his ejection seat malfunction, and been killed.

Whatever brought the plane down might easily have been fatal to the back-seater, whether it was hostile fire, or a mechanical failure.

If he reached the ground alive, which is far from a sure thing when ejecting at speed from a damaged aircraft, he might have been captured and/or killed by locals.

The idea that US SAR can always locate and extract every survivor of a crash in enemy territory is absurd. Dozens of things can (and probably will) go wrong.

That CENTCOM are not telling, strongly suggests that either they don't know what happened; Or that they do know, but it is a PR disaster (ie the guy was captured alive). If the latter, Iran will surely be quick to announce their prize.
 
Iranians should exchange the pilot for Hegseth. Ideally they should demand Trump but that would be unrealistic.
 
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barbos said:
Iranians should exchange the pilot for Hegseth. Ideally they should demand Trump but that would be unrealistic.
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Since there is no alcohol in Iran, that would be cruel and unusual punishment. Trump is a teetotaler at least.
 
Ok, here is the list of people for exchange
1. Hegseth
2. Maduro
3. Graham
4. McCain
5. Carter
6. Raygun
 
Derec said:
pood said:
Isn’t it cute how Derec is now defending war crimes? Maybe he and barbos should join forces.
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Can you show me provisions of international war that make targeting bridges a war crime?
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The bridge itself is not the issue, from the war crimes perspective.

Do you acknowledge that the people on the bridge were human beings equally deserving of life and freedom as yourself?
 
SLD said:
Bronzeage said:
So it seems likely that at some point Iran will capture a US service-person. Likely from a downed aircraft.
crazyfingers said:
.

Will Iran treat that person as a prisoner of war or as a terrorist?

And how will Trump react? I think that Trump's natural inclination is to chalk the person down as a loser but his sycophants might persuade him not to do that. Will he start blowing up the electricity infrastructure? Will he order tactical nukes? Will he negotiate?

Iran is a 1 or 0. Trump is a continuum of responses, probably mostly counterproductive.
Click to expand...
The first captured US serviceman will be treated as a publicity asset worth his weight in gold.

As for Trump's reaction, it will be drowned out by everyone on the internet replaying the video clip where Trump says, "He's a war hero because he was captured. I like people that weren't captured."
Click to expand...
A lot more than that. A 200 pound man with gold at $5,000/oz, is worth $16,000,000.

The Iranians will be demanding billions for him. They will demand a cessation of all bombing and reparations. They will threaten to have a war crimes trial. But they’ll hold off.

Trump’s options are not good:

1) walking away. He can’t walk away as he was going to. The political damage to him abandoning an American POW would be catastrophic.

2) pay them. He can’t pay it. That would effectively be surrendering and equally catastrophic politically.

3). Continue the war. He can continue the war, but then the straits aren’t opened and the economic damage will destroy him politically.

4. Invade. He can try to invade but that would be equally disastrous, actually ten times worse. Although it might open the straits.

Bottom line is he’s fucked if they capture this guy. He better pray really, really hard to god that this guy is either rescued or dead. Of course, there is no god. So that won’t fucking work either.

This is an object lesson in the perils of unpredictability in war. Clausewitz’s friction. You just can’t control what happens. These people are such fucking morons. I don’t think Trump lets hegseth survive the week. The level of stupidity and lack of strategic thinking is just beyond any parallels.

I’d bet on 3. It delays things. But he’s unpredictable.
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Iran knows their best way out of this debacle is to make it a bigger debacle. Once Trump loses enough public support that current Republican Senators and Representatives can finally shrug him off(those that are still in office), he will withdraw US forces from the area. This will likely include most of the US bases in Gulf States. Their only function was to serve as a threat. The problem with using a threat as a tool of policy is once you act on it, the threat no longer exists. One facet of this debacle is the former threat is now a present target.
 
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EuroNews said:
A vessel owned by France’s CMA CGM has become the first ship tied to Western Europe to cross the Strait of Hormuz since the outbreak of the Iran war
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Iran's deputy foreign minister Kazem Gharibabadi also announced that the country is drafting a protocol with Oman to secure traffic through the Strait of Hormuz
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The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are allegedly seeking to charge tolls starting at $1 per barrel and considering payment settlements in either Chinese yuan or stablecoins.
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There are purportedly discussions about requiring ships to submit detailed data to IRGC-linked intermediaries for approval, with access determined by a country ranking system.
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Trump can't paint this any other way than a complete failure on his part. He is increasingly looking like a cornered rat. He is also increasingly sounding like Putin. Will he act as Putin does, bombing infrastructure civilians need, rattling a nuclear saber, indiscriminately bombing out of anger when we've run out of intel on legitimate military targets? Until the status of the missing airman is known, walking away with his tail between his legs isn't even looking like an option any longer.
US Hostage.jpg
So in one swell foop, Trump has managed to piss off everyone who might call us friend, Europe, Mideast, Westpac, he about covered it all with Operation Epic Fuckup. Anyone left to piss off Donald?
I guess NATO SG Rutte, who has maintained some semblance of a relationship with Trump is going to take a stab at talking to him, Hegseth, and Rubio. Good luck.
Meanwhile, JD Vance was last spotted at a timeshare in Cancun.
 
Derec said:
pood said:
Isn’t it cute how Derec is now defending war crimes? Maybe he and barbos should join forces.
Click to expand...
Can you show me provisions of international war that make targeting bridges a war crime?
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We are allegedly at war with the theocratic leadership of Iran, not their people. Civil infrastructure harms the people a lot more than the government. War crime or not, it is a bullshit target.

What is blazingly incredible is how people who support the dissolution of the Theocracy through this unthought out effort, are apparently oblivious that Trump's effort have made the Iranian Theocracy the most powerful it has ever been. And now with the IRGC closing off territory to find the other pilot, it is becoming much and much harder for the US to have a shot in heck of brining the pilot (or their body) back home, leaving Iran an opportunity to seize something that could possibly turn this shitshow into something much much worse because of the ignorant fuck heads in charge of the US.
 
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TV and credit cards said:
EuroNews said:
A vessel owned by France’s CMA CGM has become the first ship tied to Western Europe to cross the Strait of Hormuz since the outbreak of the Iran war
Click to expand...
Iran's deputy foreign minister Kazem Gharibabadi also announced that the country is drafting a protocol with Oman to secure traffic through the Strait of Hormuz
Click to expand...
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are allegedly seeking to charge tolls starting at $1 per barrel and considering payment settlements in either Chinese yuan or stablecoins.
Click to expand...
There are purportedly discussions about requiring ships to submit detailed data to IRGC-linked intermediaries for approval, with access determined by a country ranking system.
Click to expand...
Trump can't paint this any other way than a complete failure on his part.
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Trump has a tendency of doubling down on failure, or fucking over others to get himself out of it.
 
So, Irainians have not captured the second pilot yet or pretend they have not.... I guess in order to make US waste more people in search operaton.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
We are allegedly at war with the theocratic leadership of Iran, not their people. Civil infrastructure harms the people a lot more than the government. War crime or not, it is a bullshit target.
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Bridges are dual use. And the district where it is located has some nuclear sites, from what I read. So it seems like a legitimate target.

The bridge was also not completely destroyed.
hq720.jpg

As you can see, the span is severed, hindering movement of materials.
But the towers are intact, and the bridge should be able to be repaired fairly quickly once the war is over. `
The goal should be to maximally disrupt the functioning of the Regime while minimizing long-term damage.

Same should be the goal at Kharg Island. Deny the Regime oil money, but don't destroy the infrastructure long term.
What is blazingly incredible is how people who support the dissolution of the Theocracy through this unthought out effort, are apparently oblivious that Trump's effort have made the Iranian Theocracy the most powerful it has ever been.
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Is it? I see them only emerging from this stronger if US gives up, as your Ilk wants. But right now, they are taking a lot of damage. Are all their missile, drone etc. capabilities destroyed? No. But it has only been a month and change. Not very long in the grand scheme of things.
And now with the IRGC closing off territory to find the other pilot, it is becoming much and much harder for the US to have a shot in heck of brining the pilot (or their body) back home, leaving Iran an opportunity to seize something that could possibly turn this shitshow into something much much worse because of the ignorant fuck heads in charge of the US.
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Casualties and POWs are a reality of warfare. Are we so soft that we can't handle the reality of war?

You could argue that the war should not have been started. But now that we are in it, pulling out prematurely is the worst possible outcome. Especially if, as some Ilkists want, it is coupled with giving in to the Regime demands. No, the only way out is through.
 
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