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We are on the Verge of Economic Catastrophe

Nothing new to report but This article from Reuters provides an eye-opening graph (shown below) which highlights an effect of the Triffin Dilemma.

Brief history review: By the 1930's the U.S. Dollar was so respected that people all around the world were selling their gold to the U.S. Treasury for what then seemed like the outrageously high price of $35 per ounce. Just a decade or two later, after the devastation of WWII, it seemed that the U.S.A. owned much of the world! Let's continue the story by quoting  Net international investment position

In 1980, the United States net international-creditor position was bigger than the total net creditor-positions of all the other countries in the world. Only six years later, in 1986, when the nation’s international investment position was at a year-end negative $107.4 billion, the U.S. became a net-debtor nation for the first time since 1914 ... By 1990, the U.S. was the world's largest debtor.

In just ten years the U.S. went from "owning much of the world" to being "the world's largest debtor"!!

The Wiki page has a table that can be sorted by NIIP as a % of GDP. At the top are well-known prosperous countries like Norway, Singapore, Switzerland, Germany, Japan. At the bottom are economic "basket cases" like Sudan, Greece, Nicaragua, and ... the USA. The U.S. NIIP is Negative $26 Trillion. As shown in the graph this is 85% of U.S. GDP. This is the NET investment position. It doesn't just mean that foreigners own $26 Trillion of U.S. real estate, stocks and bonds. It means they own $26T Plus X, where X is foreign-based assets owned by U.S. entities.

Is this a Bubble? Should we be worried that there will be a "fire sale" on U.S. assets if foreigners lose faith in U.S. governance?
I dunno. I report; you decide.



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