Now France has voted.
What strikes me is the similarities with other countries. The U.S. and France have recently both voted largely on personality, even if Macron and Trump couldn't be more different. The recent good fortune of Jeremy is at least in part based on his performance as a 'Talk Show' guest. Theresa on the other hand, although not a disaster, is clearly unable to emphatise with her audience as would be necessary for her to perform well enough. She obviously committed several faux-pas, not least now with some right-wing conservatives trying to set the agenda by in effect speaking on taxes against Theresa's manifesto. But perhaps more decisively she is lacking the warmth that seems now necessary in British politics since perhaps, yes, Diana's tragic death, that sort of changed the mood of country. Jeremy is not well served by his associates, and he himself has obvious flaws. But it appears that many voters, if opinion polls are correct, and that's a big 'if', seem prepared to disregard the flaws and that essentially because of Jeremy's personality. You will recall that this aspect played a major role from the very start when Jeremy still had to win the battle against Labour's own MPs. I already thought at the time that he was very good, despite the relentless propaganda to the contrary in the Tabloids, which was to be predicted, but also despite a clear, if not so clearly outrageous, bias on the part of many reporters, commentators and pundits on BBC Radio Four (I'm a regular listener).
Theresa's decision to go to the voters early may in the end help Jeremy get a firmer grip on the direction of Labour. The Labour party itself is gravely conflicted, largely because unlike Jeremy many of its MPs are not socialists at all. So early elections may help Jeremy get more socialist Labour MPs. Maybe not as much as he would like but any number will be good to have. Labour is unlikely to have an overall majority but it's more important now to rebuild a properly socialist party to get ready for the future.
The similarity goes further. The recent votes in the U.S. and in France have defied initial expectations. In France, the right-wing former Prime Minister Fillon was initially expected to have an easy win and yet he lost badly, not even qualifying for the runoff. This may signal the end of traditional politics in France, with Macron apparently set to clean up French politics. And Trump of course who defied all odds against Hillary. All this is based partially on personality. It seems that it is Fillon's old-school personality that prevented him from convincing French voters that he was an honourable man. And Macron's sunny personality may have been the key factor in deciding French voters, overall rather conservative, that he was to right person for reforming French society. And then Hillary lost on personality too an election that couldn't be lost. And now Jeremy may do it again.
One explanation may be that at a time when democratic countries are experiencing systemic difficulties, with high levels of debt, austerity, either too many low-paid jobs or no jobs at all, voters can only vote on the basis of personality because they have arrived to the conclusion that party politics has become ineffective at selecting the right leaders and things are going to get worse anyway. Let's trust our intuition! Of course it's not going to work necessarily but what else can you do? Like most pundits I'm rather optimistic for France and pessimistic for America. In Britain, more socialist MPs could do some good. I expect that they won't be as stupidly leftists as the Tabloids will want to portray them and they should be able to held Theresa to account more effectively, possibly with the arrival of new talents, which are badly needed. The bad news maybe that the Tory may slip further to the right to the point it will be obscene so some hard times seems inevitable. You also have to take into account the fact that the coming Brexit negotiations will constantly and for probably more than two years make the political debate more and more acrimonious. All the furious nasties will come on line at the same time and it's going to be painful to witness. Remember Jo Cox. There is more than one crazy in Britain. And remember all the potential there was still when Tony was Prime Minister. I was there at the general election in 97, very nearly joined a lib-dem canvassing, still have the definitive John Major chocolate lollipop... Seems such a long time ago now). And remember how Tony's international politics discredited the right-wing of Labour as the consequences finally began to emerge.
It's all irrational but elections couldn't be rational affairs. The recent results are symptoms of how bad the situation is in our countries. Irrational elections are probably better than straightforward revolutions.
EB