And you are correct, but only partially. Profits that are reinvested into business capital investments in the economy circulate in the economy. Money spent on capital machinery and production facilities for example. But we have gone from corporate profits being twice the amount of business investment in 1980 to them being over five times the amount of business investment today. This excess doesn't circulate in the economy.
Some of it has been absorbed by the stock market due to the decline in inflation. To the extent that it actually does not circulate the Fed will replace it with new money. The Fed's control over the economy is to a large degree by controlling the amount of money circulating. Individuals and businesses choosing to save vs spend thus has basically zero effect on the overall amount of money circulating.
You are saying that the rich spend all of their incomes. Come on Loren, that is going over the top with your situational statements. Do you you really believe that or are you so conditioned to argue with everything that I write that it is simply a reflex now?
Note how I said with many layers in between. If the rich guy sticks it in the bank the bank loans out most of it and whoever took the loan spends the money. It's spent, not sitting under a mattress. Whether the rich guy himself actually spent it is irrelevant.
Fundamentally, all interest is because someone puts money to productive use and is willing to pay
The vast majority of deposits in banks are in commercial demand accounts that don't pay interest. Do you believe that this money isn't put to productive use by the bank? That it isn't loaned out?
Providing bank services costs money. If it's sitting at 0% the bank still needs to make some money on it. Furthermore, why would they choose not to make money if they could?
You avoided this question. The rich save most of the money that they earn. The non-rich spend most of the money that they earn. Do you agree with this?
This should be an easy "yes." If you are undecided about your answer perhaps these will help.
The problem is that you are looking at only a single event rather than the whole cycle.
Our economy has changed, lest you think that the minimum wage is for teenagers. The average age of a fast-food worker is 28. And minimum wage jobs aren’t confined to a small corner of the economy. By 2040, it is estimated that 48 percent of all American jobs will be low-wage service jobs. We need to reckon with this. What will our economy be like when it’s dominated by low paying service jobs? What proportion of the population do we want to live on food stamps? 50 percent? Does this matter? Should we care?
The use of the 28 figure makes me question everything they're saying. What I see in fast food places is a bunch of students and some seniors, not a curve running from teen to ~40. The average value of a double-humped curve is all but meaningless.
Businesspeople tell me they cannot afford higher wages. Not true. They can adjust to all sorts of higher costs. The minimum wage is much higher here in Seattle than in Alabama, and McDonald’s thrives in both places. Businesses adjust to higher costs, even when they say they can’t. ...
And what's the price of their products?
SimpleDon said:
And it is this proposition that makes the income distribution so important to the economy. Because savings don't circulate in the economy. They sit in bank accounts, in Treasury Bills, in the stock market and in certain bonds.
Just because the analysis gets more complex is no reason to stop it and declare it doesn't happen. That money in the bank account? You think the bank is simply storing it out of the goodness of their hearts? No--they're loaning most of it out, putting it to productive use. T-Bills are the government putting it to use. Bonds are companies putting it to use.
The analysis isn't complex.
But you're not doing it.
The amount of money that a bank loans out isn't determined by the amount of money that it has in deposits. It is limited by the demand for loans from qualified borrowers and the bank's capitalization.
And it sets it's interest rates to make these values match.
If the demand for loans is low then the money just sits in the bank. If the demand for loans is greater than the amount of deposits in the bank then the miracle of fractional reserve banking kicks in and the bank creates the money that it needs to loan out. If the bank still doesn't have enough deposits to fulfill the reserve requirement, the Fed will loan the bank the amount needed and the loan will be made.
You just flunked banking 101. Go back to square 1 and figure out what fractional reserve banking really does. Hint: It does not let banks loan out money they do not have. That's conspiracy theory crap.
But this will disappear when we grant yours and the banks' wishes to be deregulated. Then anyone can call themselves a bank and loan out however amount of money that they want to. How do we know this? Because of the savings and loan fiasco of the Reagan administration when it happened. Because of the lessons of the Great Depression and the Great Recession, because of the Glided Age and because of Adam Smith's warnings against rentier banks and a thousand other times when when we have been taught that unregulated and poorly regulated banks cause financial instability.
I have no problem with reserve limits. They act as a very necessary firebreak and should be kept. 2008 was basically the failure to build such firebreaks into new areas of finance.
You can't understand the economy unless you understand this. What it means is that money isn't a scarce resource. The economy's job is to ration scarce resources. There is no need to treat money as a scarce resource. The money supply grows and shrinks with the economic activity. The more activity that we have the more loans are made and the more money there is circulating in the economy. If economic activity drops there is more money paid back for outstanding loans than are written in new loans.
No. Money represents effort--it's a scarce resource. If you pretend that money isn't scarce the result is inflation until either you destroy the economy (Zimbabwe) or you come to your senses (Brazil.)
I am not sure what your point is. Yes, the stock market provides liquidity to the stockholders. But it doesn't affect anything to the market or to the economy as money available to invest. For every seller of stock there is a buyer of stock. The money doesn't leave the stock market. If there is any profit it is provided by the buyer to the seller and the amount of the profit decreases the money available to invest to buy the stock and then is paid to the seller to increase the money available to invest. Net effect, zero. Yes, it provides liquidity, but I am sure that it doesn't mean what you think that it means beyond this. It certainly doesn't increase the creation of new businesses.
Hint: Money does flow in and out of the stock market. Money flowing in causes stock prices to rise, money flowing out causes stock prices to lower. (It's not 1:1, though.)
The stock market has almost zero impact on the creation of new businesses or on business investment. We know this because we track both in the real world.
No. It's just there is no relationship between how they move.
IPOs, initial public offerings are invariably for private businesses that are already operating successfully who want to go public. Then they are subject to the net effect zero above impact on the funds available for investment. It is almost unheard of today to have an IPO for an idea of a business, a new business.
Because the investment came from investors that got in earlier, hoping to make a pile when the stock went public. Without the stock market these guys couldn't cash out and thus wouldn't have nearly as much to invest.
A UBI is intentional redistribution. But I disagree with a UBI. Even though you are going to send a check to Warren Buffet I am certain that he will realize that he is actually paying for it and a whole lot more of them going to other people.
I believe that it is better for all and for the economy if everyone who is able works to earn money that they and their families need and want. This work to live rule should apply to the wealthy too.
So you want to be a luddite and hold society back so those who can't be productive in a future society still have jobs??
If you support an UBI which is intentional redistribution why do you have so much problem supporting redistribution by intentionally pushing up the wages of the say lower 25% of the workers? And letting the economy do what it does best, adapt to the higher wages to lower profits. Instead of taxing profits and high incomes to redistribute the money through a complex new government program.
Something a little meatier than "this bad for the economy."
What you are missing is that the ladder to success is connected to those wages. When you push those wages up you're pushing the bottom of the ladder up, also. The higher you push it the more people who won't be able to grab it in the first place.
Places with high minimum wages recognize this and try to overcome it with training wages. Never mind that it doesn't always work, they have plenty of people stuck on welfare for life.